Congratulations to all CVN holders - especially those who kept the faith during those dark days.
Today was a day of vindication, relief and exhilaration
Any way, down to business.
First point: a bit of history on Dorado.
This was presentation on 31 Jan 2017.
"
5. Dorado is next to be drilled - at the moment, its forecast to be drilled at around Sept 2017, at a budgeted cost of USD $50M (with the enhanced casing to take account of increased pressure). We will be using a Jack-up rig. I spoke to Steve Molyneux separately, and he said (according to my interpretation) there is a possibility that Dorado holds "gas and oil" at the Caley section (based on review of 3D Seismic results).
Dorado is Huge (btw, so is Bandy).
Dorado, if confirmed by drill tests, could contain multi TCF (if only gas and condensate).
He referred me to page 9 diagram (gas plumes reference), as a sign of the likely gas pressure down there."
Yes, even back then - Steve Molyneux had a suspicion that the Caley sand will be gas and oil.
Here is the link:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/22256225/single
Second point: For those who think the second part of the Dorado prospect is a crapshoot - refer to below.
"
During the deepening of the well over the past week several sands with positive indications of hydrocarbons were intersected in the deeper Milne sections of the well. These will also be investigated with the more detailed formation evaluation provided for with wireline logging along with the shallower Caley sandstone where the Company confirmed hydrocarbons previously.
While these deeper Milne sands are not interpreted to be commercially significant within the Roc structure in this well, the existence of reservoir and hydrocarbons at this depth are positive signals for the shallower and larger Dorado structure that was outlined during the recent Good Oil conference (see Carnarvon website for details)."
So, no its
NOT a crapshoot. They have already been there and they know these sands contain hydrocarbons - just that at ROC2, it was too deep - at 5000 plus metres.
However, at Dorado it is in an "
UNDIP" location (about 1000 metres higher than at ROC2), and where hydrocarbons should migrate too.
Its the reason why they have postulated a higher volume estimates for the lower Dorado sands.
The unknown (for me) is the porosity and permeability of these deeper sandstones.
Here is the company presentation:
http://www.carnarvon.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/1595074-Roc-2-Well-drilling-update.pdf
Third point: Testings from PS3 could confirm we have a
Stratigraphic trap.
At the moment, it looks like on either side of ROC2 structure and about 20km apart on either side, we have trapped structures of hydrocarbons within the Caley sands - Dorado and PS3.
Refer to this diagram on the link below.
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/22872011/single
IMHO, once PS3 is confirmed, it will validate the prognosis that we have a Stratigraphic Trap within the Caley sands (refer to diagram for illustration).
Possibly leading to this outcome:
"6. Overall, our whole basin (within our permits), if proven could contain upward of 10 TCF of gas and at least a billion barrels of condensate." (
same from the first link).
Yes, the above statement seemed like a very optimistic assumption back in January 2017. But results from the drills are getting clearer every day.
Fingers crossed.
Finally, I like to thank our JV partners Quadrant and our management team for turning a prospect into a Strategic Asset worth Billions of dollars - and making all of us holders, lots of money.
And thanks to those enquiring about my whereabout.
Disclosure: I hold a large investment (large for me) in CVN, so anyone reading this should exercise caution - one should NOT interpret the above as financial advice, either to buy, hold or sell CVN shares. You should always consult with your financial advisor on what is best for you.
(20min delay)