de ja vu, page-166

Does Dent factor into his predictions regarding a long bear market the potential for the rising middle class in China and India (and in the future the middle class in Africa will probably also start to rise on the back of the resource boom) to counteract some of the negative impacts of the retiring baby boomers in the west?

I recall Warren Buffett (in 2001 I think it was) also predicted a long bull market ending in 2008 as the baby boomers start to retire.

I've never quite understood why the baby boomers retiring was considered to be such a negative for financial markets. Alright they will start drawing down on savings which will in theory reduce money in the financial markets, however they will be consuming which in theory should mean the money circulating through the global economy (albeit there may be structural shifts in economies as a result in changing spending patterns). And given the rise of China and India there are plenty of takers for the investments that will be sold down by the baby boomers.

I would also suggest if the baby boomers retirement does lead to a bear market it does not necessarily follow that if the US has a long-term bear market that Australia will as well given the structural differences between the US and Australian economies. Bear in mind too that a lot of the major corporate beneficiaries of the China/India growth story are still listed on the US and European stock exchanges even if a large proportion of their operations are now offshore.