insurance and warren buffet, page-12

while i believe QBE is a great company, i think it's close to reaching the end of its rapid growth spurt and gradually becoming a 'stalwart' in lynch terms.

if you look at the past 5 year history, EPS has gradually shrunk whilst DPS has gradually increased. this indicates to me that the company has found fewer and fewer suitably good and priced insurance companies to buy. add to that the fact that frank o'halloran isn't a spring chicken anymore (possibly with a questionable motivation to keep going after already achieving so much ala alan moss) and there's plenty for the bears to feed on

now qbe is a very well run company and is easily the best of the australian insurance companies, as recent results show, but I think it's definitely closer to the end of great prosperity than the start. nonetheless, it's still a great company and an absolute bargain at current prices, but i wouldn't expect 20+% annual returns anytime soon.

that's my two cents worth, if anyone disagrees with my numbers or reasoning feel free to chip in

cheers

frog