Refinedsilver,
Sorry about the delay in replying, and a couple of good and considered points that you make; especially the second.
I've become a bit lazy again in trying to engage with the subject of MMN. I thought a little 'before and after' treatment of a full retrospective collection of Macmin forward looking statements juxtaposed against events as they have actually materialised might be entertaining, and wanted to include this as an attachment - but couldn't get down to it. Perhaps when the venom and bile secretions build up again.
Refinedsilver says:
" Secondly, a very small point, but while production needs to 5 fold from Dec to reach targets, if Dec Qtr was 46koz, and Dec was 37koz, that means Oct and Nov were 9koz between them or 4.5koz each. Hence there was already an 8 fold increase from November to December, another half step like that and we are nearly there."
Yes I hadn't looked at it that way.
There's something a bit askew with this but I cant bring it into focus.
One analogy that has occurred to me is that it is easier, for example, to multiply a stock price from a low level than from a higher level. Also we know a major cause of that 8X jump from 4.5kozs to 37 kozs. It was ramp-up to continuous shifts at the electro-winning plant. Obviously they can't go beyond that; although it's arguable that the following could drive the 'half step' that you hope for:
- added leach stacks,
- or more concentrated silver 'pregnant' solutions achieved, for passing through the EW cells,
- or extension of the EW plant (completely hypothetical)
Then there are the additions of extra crushing and screening, and merrill crowe unit(s) to the process chain.
Having veered over to the positive with those comments, I'll balance with the negative:
- there's more that can go wrong with the above
- and big extra costs
So I guess optimism is your half step, and pessimism is my multiple of five.
We'll be able to see a bit more from the Mar Qtrly, although not by then the performance yet of the last two mentioned improvements.
Where you say:
" . . the broken promises bit - that is, claims vs reality - the question is, is this specific to MMN, or to many, or even most juniors at production start-up . . . ?
My argument with that is mostly the degree and extent of the misinformatiom. In my limited experience MMN is ahead of the pack on this. Here they truly excel.
Also the fact that it's not limited to MMN doesn't mean that it's all right, and that MMN holders don't want a realistic picture of their company.
Luvthestrat says:
"analysis may just get pushed out in favour of panic at not being in, as the SP goes through the roof due to a rising Ag price."
Yes I concede that's a possibility; but in my hardening view, it will be an irrational identification of MMN with Silver.
Maybe there won't be enough mugs around this time.
And thanks mate for the passage:
"Your analysis of MMN may be flawless . . "
I printed this excerpt and took it to a shop to have it transferred to parchment.
It now jostles with the many other testimonials, encomiums, degrees, and trophies on my wall that proclaim a life lived to the hilt and bristling with achievement.
Actually you might have guessed that the wall's pretty bare except for the calendar from my car mechanic, and a shelf of Sylvester the Cat and Daffy Duck novelty mugs, a growing collection of speaking Warnie dolls from the VB promotion, along with a small library of Idiot's Guides.
MMN
macmin silver ltd
