Great analysis sharpeye. Hopefully the seismic amplitudes (Otto prospect) in the Western Blocks, highlighted in both the Otto and RMP announcements, are indeed sandstones of reservoir quality, and that an oil-bearing, stratigraphic trap exists. In my view, the geological chance of success of 25-30% is high for an exploration well. Here are some guesstimates on how Otto possibly came up with 25-35%.
- TRAP 0.7 (moderate, Horseshoe, Pikka, Putu, Stony Hill are all effective stratigraphic traps)
- OIL SOURCE 0.9 (high due to proximity to the Horseshoe oi discovery)
- SEAL 0.9 (high, seal demonstrated by oil accumulation at Horseshoe and elsewhere)
- RESERVOIR 0.5 (Low-moderate, this is where we are hoping the seismic amplitude is indeed in response to reservoir quality sand).
Despite the Otto prospect being proximal to the Horseshoe discovery, it is very unlikely that reservoir sands, if present at the Otto prospect location, would connect with reservoir sands in the Horseshoe discovery by the very nature that the Horseshoe and Otto sands were deposited on different ancient, continental shelf breaks and at different times. The shelf breaks comprising the emerging Nanushuk topset play, essentially run in a north-south direction, and hence the sands deposited on these shelf breaks would also run in a north-south detection, rather than east west. As you have probably read, the Pikka and Horseshoe oil discoveries appear to fall on a the same pressure gradient and are possibly in pressure communication over a distance of 40+kms. Below are a few more cartoons that hopefully explain the above.
View attachment 1208178
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Kind regards OldGeo
