Well I practically stopped posting regularly on OGX threads back in March when the share price was 10.5 cents and the forum was getting out of hand and too much for me to bare. I've reproduced what I said then below. From a share price perspective my opinion highlighted in bold below has proven to be correct and the price is below the 7.5cents I mentioned but I'm not expecting any credit for that prediction here. Shareholders better hope the second part of my comment doesn't come true.
By my estimation the company should have cash remaining at the end of the June quarter anywhere between 3 million and 6.2 million depending on how successful it has been with mining. If the cash balance is close to $3 or $4 million I think shareholders should take that as a very big warning sign as then mine will be actually losing quite a lot of money and will be running on a cost of production of over A$1,650/oz (if the March Appendix 5b estimates are close to the mark).
In this case the company will have one more quarter in which to come good and get the mine profitable or else it's close it down or another capital raising in the Sept quarter IMO. Esh
"I'll leave you guys to it. My shareholding is too small to be bothered trying to keep it real here. As a last comment I suggest you read the annual report. They have tried different blast techniques to try and reduce over break. For those following from the commissioning stage the company had previously run into very avoidable problems of lead from the detonators showing up in the gold concentrate. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20161007/pdf/43bssmrjcm3hkc.pdf That problem has apparently been solved but don't fall for the A$500-600 AISC arguments. The stopes here are flat lying and 0.75m tall. You've got to be a good miner to pull the ore out without significant over break. The panel samples are 0.5m x 0.5m. The gold IMO is extremely concentrated in certain veins and aside from over break from the stopes there is likely going to be significant internal dilution from within the stope material.
Read the mineral resource estimate and understand exactly how much gold has been defined under the JORC2012 code (and remember it's only in an inferred category). Read the exploration target estimate and understand that 23,000-24,000oz is the maximum an expert was willing to sign off on when those estimates were made. Remember in addition to over break and internal dilution a gravity circuit alone can not recover 100% of the gold. From what I remember reading the company has given shareholders and investors no idea of the actual expected recovery from the new flow sheet.
Funny how longer term holders with a some memory of what has happened in the past get pushed out of these discussions when they "get in the way of things".
Have a good break and I'll be hoping for my 16cents (I'll take 15cents) before the end of the year. Given what I've seen and understood since they went back to basics I sincerely think the price will never get there however. More chance of seeing my last entry price of 7.5cents again IMO and there is also a reasonable probability it might end back down with very little support and back in the hands of the secured creditors. Esh"
