In my estimation, there are no technologies anywhere near ready for industrial scale production of separated REEs from ore concentrates. Lynas has never once wasted investors time discussing any such alternates, IIRC.
The risks to Lynas investors who depend on mass adoption of REE-enabled technologies come strictly from the application side. Especially with respect to the magnet metals, where the risks are significant and increasing.
The separated Nd (some of which might be bound for Pr-free magnets), Pr, La and Ce (some of which might end up in magnets) all have non-magnet target markets which in my opinion are relatively safe; those that leverage the optical properties of separated Nd/Pr and the catalytic properties of separated La/Ce, for example. The current target of separation of 25% of NdPr is a good start.
However, the basic NdFeB magnet app (BLDC motors, etc) is certainly proving more vulnerable than I first thought it would be ten years ago. The REE elimination research is beginning to bear fruit, witness the REE-free BMW EV traction motor platform and SRMs in electric power steering units, etc.
I'm still hopeful that REE reduction research will result in more motors with less NdFeB per unit, but at this point NdFeB is losing market share in a number of apps. Gaining in others, though.
My thesis has definitely shifted to no small degree from peerless ROW supplier to significant Chinese supplier. And there's a lot of higher-quality Chinese capacity coming up, too. Chinese are fully supplied and full speed ahead.
Did anyone ask Amanda about magnet metal pricing? Did she see them rising or China keeping them down going forward? Does she see separation as a means of accessing better prices? Or purely a matter of the "percent of wallet" and customer "stickiness"?
TIA
LYC Price at posting:
$2.37 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)