COB (ASX) Update on Cobalt and COB

Originally posted by Duncan04 ↑

A few comments on recents dvpmts and my readings/research.

1)In ASX releases/ interviews COB’s CEO always emphasizes the financial rewards for COB of producing the end product sought in the EV battery market: Cobalt Sulphate. Therefore it is highly unlikely COB would follow the company involved in the Idaho project which took the decision last year to only produce Cobalt Concentrate. FYI Cobalt concentrate only fetches 30% of the Cobalt metal price while Cobalt Sulphate usually gets 100 to 105%.

2) -We know that around 50% of the Cobalt metal produced yearly is used in the industrial sector( from turbines to laptops…) and demand there is growing slowly but surely.
-The Electric Vehicle battery market is the new and fast developing one: this year alone giant car manufacturers like VW and BMW have signed multi billions and multi years deals to procure EV batteries. Panasonic, Telsa’s battery supplier, despite Elon Musk claims to drastically reduce the Cobalt content ,is expecting to triple its Cobalt requirements by the early 2020’s.
-But a new sector is about to require significant Cobalt supply: the Semi Conductor industry. On June 5^thApplied Materials announced that after 5 years of research and tests they will be using cobalt as their connective metal of choice in forthcoming semiconductors produced by them. See technical details http://www.appliedmaterials.com/company/news/press-releases/2018/06/applied-materials-breakthrough-accelerates-chip-performance-in-the-big-data-and-ai-era

3) From a geographical side now,we already knew the US and China had decreed Cobalt to be a strategic metal.
But in quick succession India and Japan are now waking up.
-July 5^th: India gvt instructs state owned companies to buy Lithium and Cobalt mines on their own or by partnering with private companies. See
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/india-looks-to-acquire-lithium-and-cobalt-mines-abroad/articleshow/64876000.cms
- July 26^th: In Japan the Industry ministry made an announcement about the formation of a joint body of car makers + possibly EV battery makers to secure cobalt supplies through signing long-term contracts with existing global suppliers or investing in new development projects with financial support coming from the government.

3) On the finance front, as per PFS p.2 COB had a comfortable A$ 9.8M cash as of July 1^st.
Looking forward we can expect new developments with technological and financial partner, giant LGI from Korea. However we should not dismiss a possible streaming agreement as per those signed for the Ramu Mine in Papua with Cobalt 27 in May ( $113m cash upfront against 200t/ y of Cobalt +1000 tons of Nickel) and for Vale’s Voisey Bay mine in Canada mid June for US$ 690 Million for roughly 2000 tons of Cobalt/ year. I am forecasting COB's future output to be around 4000 tons of equivalent metal/ y by BFS time.

In the meantime, COB’s CEO letter to the shareholders last week was a clear road map for the next 12 months on the way to the BFS in June 2019. Focus is on increasing the life of mine as well as Cobalt and Elemental recoveries while working at reducing the power costs as well as the tailings costs.
Interesting to note was that LGI is going to double its battery making capacity in the coming years = need more Cobalt. Also the COB team met not only with LGI but Japanese too.
End users and battery makers prefer to source from outside DRC if given a choice . Keep in mind COB is the only new significant primary Cobalt Sulphate project (I am aware off). This is attractive to buyers as they do not have to worry about Nickel or Copper prices. Thanks to the PFS potential customers have a first clear picture of what the company can do. Also samples of the end product Cobalt Sulphate have been delivered previously.
As a LTH I am impressed with what the mgmt. has achieved in just 18 months .In my view the current MC is very low and I have noticed several times the odd 1 share sale at closing to push the SP down triggering stop loss orders. COB fundamentals are v good and in the hands of a capable and trustworthy management its future is bright. Forget the noise and focus on the results. Do not forget the EV wave is just starting and the recent dvpmts on the semi conductor front deserve to be watched too.

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Great summary. My real concern, which I have expressed to the CEO by email, is due to the fact that BPL has not yet confirmed that COB has met stage 2 of the JV earn in and has need to hire an independent 3rd party to make the assessment. This means they are still sitting at ~50%.

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Last 5.4¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $24.02M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.3¢	5.5¢	5.3¢	$8.824K	164.0K

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