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31/07/18
11:38
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Originally posted by born2reign
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The dual blessing/problem here is that this is "predominantly comprised of royalties from sales of Olay Magnemask in China" aka nearly all of this figure is China alone..
While a quarter of a million from one country alone in one quarter alone is a solid result on it's own (this extrapolates to 1 million per annum in revenue from China alone), it is disappointing that the USA pharmacy / other international online sales haven't hit our bank account yet.
This will paint a bleak picture for those who just look at the revenue amount and despair, I'm more concerned with why P&G appear to always be late with their quarterly payments. I personally don't really care whether the global sales figures hit our bank account in the July 4C or the October 4C as 3 months is a small period time in the overall grand scheme of things, but why are P&G's payment/accounts team regularly missing our agreed payment deadlines?
If anything, if we assume the rest of the world combined will purchase roughly the same amount of Magnemasks per quarter as China does, then we have some estimated figures of 500k per quarter (250k China, 250k rest of the world) or 2 million per annum from the 2 Olay Magnemasks products alone (we know there's a 3rd whitening Magnemasks product to come on board too).
As a standalone result, that is a fantastic outcome from a singular product range.
But I understand with all the recent hype/expectations building that this expected revenue figure missed the mark for this quarter and plenty of people sitting on the fence will sell as it did miss short term expectations by a big way and the share price will be punished accordingly. As a long term buy & hold, there's some positives to be taken out of a 250k one quarter result, mostly derived from China sales.
I could get really excited if the SK-II Magnetic Booster was also on the shelves like Magnemasks is but for whatever reason, that seems to be a seasonal / promotional item instead of a permanent offering.
But once international sales (not just China) hit our bank account, combined with the whitening Olay Magnemasks product and our first integrated product (which should be just about ready by now), and technology 2 revenues, you can see how our annual revenue will exponentially increase rather quickly.
Alas, it wasn't to be this quarter... if you had short-term massive expectations this result hits you like a ton of bricks to the teeth... if you have a long term view with no plans to sell any time soon, there's some (standalone) reasons to remain optimistic.
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if you have a long term view with no plans to sell any time soon, there's some (standalone) reasons to remain optimistic.
We said the same thing 3 years ago, 2 years ago, 1 year ago. That's the problem. Thing is it's taken so long to get just $1mill in revenue flow, how long is it going to take for the new products coming on board to make a significant impact to the bottom line? That's the question many would be asking themselves right now. Is it worth still waiting or are there other investments that will provide a better return?
On the positive, after an initial dump (shock factor most likely), the share price seems to be recovering quite well. Volumes aren't huge. So there must still be optimism from those investors that count.