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31/07/18
11:52
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Originally posted by Wicksy*
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Reposting a post i posted the day after the Q32018 quarterly was released: I still stand by the majority of the below even though the original orders weren't to fulfill customer demand, more so to fulfill distributor demand. In saying that, why Dave needed to airship orders so they arrived mid Jan confuses things even more. Toning down the $500k+$938k Q4 rev projection to $1.1mil. Fingers crossed.
MY BREAKDOWN OF Q3 2018 QUARTERLY REVENUE OF $505K
Thor was $1.8mil over 17months = $106k AUD per month
New Thor contract of $125k USD = $166k AUD per month.
Jan + Feb came in previous SoW = Total $212k AUD
March came under the new SoW = $166k AUD
$505k – Cloud/Thor ($212k+$166k) = $127k of OHM. Give or take.
I’m being conservative, using a blended avg of $1000 AUD per month.
The aware letter response stated $.1mil from Digicel up to 28th Feb. That could actually be $51k rounded up to nearest $100k.
Jan/Feb = $60k OHM rev
March = $67k or 67 units in cash receipt mode of OHM revenue
Looking ahead at the Q42018
Min $500k from Thor.
Min ~$938k from OHM
= Q4 REV $1.438MIL
+$1.34mil YTD gives a FY18 ~$2.8mil.
My base case is for the OHM’s to double on a monthly basis for the next 4months. 67 March / 134 April / 268 May / 536 June / 1072 in July. This would fulfil the original 1000 lot order of Buddy OHMs and the timeline adds up to the new order of a blended mix of 3k. (Ordered mid Nov17 / delivered mid Feb 18) (Reminder some were air shipped 6 weeks). Then +6months for them to start to turn into full receipt mode ~July 2018. ~1000 active OHM units in July = $12mil per year.
Reminder, on the 9th Nov 2017 BUD announced an order of 3000 Additional units across the Buddy OHM family to satisfy near term demand . “The units ordered this week are anticipated to meet the more immediate needs of reseller and distribution dealsalready in place.” “ While the original order for Buddy OHM product was symmetric – 1000 units each of Buddy Ohm, Ohm link, Ohm Sense and Ohm Pulse were ordered – this new order will be asymmetric”
Looking back at the 2Q2018 quarterly. BUD stated “Signed contracts of more than a$69.3mil. “Excluding amounts that have since concerted to revenue and excluding any attribution to the Ingram Micro USA distribution agreement” They have since had to back that statement up in the recent aware letter. In addition, this statement in the Q3 quarterly “The Buddy sales team can report however, that momentum continues to build and all indications are that traction is building as needed to meet recent guidance ”. We all know how importance guidance is whether +/- following the recent aware letters. So at this stage they are well on track for `$70mil revenue over the next 3 years. At 11c, the $25mil cash in the bank is worth 2cents to the stock price. BUD is on track to be profitable @ FY19. Math looks good even if the share price doesn’t. Good luck to all investors.
Disclaimer: All of the above is my opinion only and not to be taken as investment advice. DYOR
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just in case the report is not what the mkt is expecting just thought i would let you know that you can not short BUD on IG mkts there is not enough stock to borrow, not sure about FP Mkts someone may have a look?
so that bodes well