asia up, australia down, $a up, page-21

Hi Grant,

Don't shoot the messenger, I was just regurgitating data from the Instos. Yesterday I received a report from BT saying they anticipated the Feb rate rise. I was surprised as well.
Quote,"Given the strong momentum in both International and Domestic economic data, we favour a further 25bp rate rise in Feb 2004. After this forecast is much less certain. With the cash rate expected to be 5.5% and inflation forecast to be 2% by mid-2004, the real cash rate will be approximately 3.5%. We believe this to be firmly in the RBA's neutral zone (a real rate of 3%-3.5%)."
Also of note,"Over the year the $AUD rose 33% against the $USD - The largest gain of any currency against the greenback since 1985".
I guess this puts us on all the currency speculator's radars. Fortunately, because of Australia's appalling performance as a manufacturer, most of our exports are raw materials which are in demand (Cheer on the aussie beef and minerals).

Anyway, it's pretty hard to say we are in a recession and need rates reduced.

Cheers