I’ve sold my entire 3mil shares for a loss of ~$250k ( at one stage was +$850k). I rolled the dice on this one hoping for a change of life but it wasn’t to be. Now I need to learn from it and move on. As I look through the carnage I’ve got a few things to point out.
Only reason I didn’t take profit on the way up to 40c was due to CGT. I wanted to wait until the 1yr 50% discount kicked in. Silly in hindsight.
Below are events I should have paid more attention to.
The initial bait in May 17 “Buddy estimates that follow-on interest and/or purchase orders were received from customers representing nearly the full first manufacturing product run (of 1000 units).” - We later found out these were orders for inventory not paying customers.
The $20mil 3yr deal with digicel was the 2nd trap. We later found out that the get out clause was simply the loss of exclusivity. Bid deal.
The Ingram Micro Canada deal “Ingram Micro Canada will offer Buddy Ohm through a series of fixed price bundles, which Buddy management expects to yield up to 4x revenue per facility than any previous deal. Further, if this distribution relationship and region performs comparatively to the Caribbean and Central American market, it is expected to yield more than A$20m in revenue over three years to the Company. What a load of *
Nov 17: The first order of additional 3000 units of OHM hardware, with some needed to be “air shipped” This made me believe the original 1k order was fulfilled. Not the case.
All the talk of the “global monster deal” - what a load of rubbish. Share price didn’t even budge when it was finally announced.
Dave selling down his holding.
ASX aware letters – They were right to issue them.
Dave repeatedly told us that Buddy OHM revenue would not be recognised as a material contribution to total revenues until Q42018……. Now he has subtly changed the wording and included “percentage of total company revenue” No one cares about %’s when you have a cash burn of $4milpq and rev of sub 800k.
Dave has now removed the previous $69mil 3yr rev guidance out of the quarterly.
1ronnie You were right. I just wished you changed your approach.
Jmacduff My choice and I’m a big boy, but you did influence some of my trading decisions along the way. Saying the stock was cheap when it was trading mid 20’s was one occasion. I understand you are not involved with the company, but someone who is best mates with Dave and has a significant holding in the company you would know how the air is smelling. Just not sure you should be posting on HC.
Goldbear77 Thanks very much for your wisdom. I will continue to follow you on HC
Rant over. Good luck all.
BUD Price at posting:
9.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
