"This week's Treasury Department announcement that it would have to increase the amount of bond auctions over the next three months was a low-key reminder that the government IOU is only getting bigger and will start influencing interest rates sooner rather than later."
Interest rates rising to fund Trump debt will ultimately slow the economy and trigger a flight to perceived security.
I'll give you a dozen metrics for you to guess and if they look reasonable I'll make a guess. Seriously I couldn't be bothered playing those games, a poster here maintains a very professional spreadsheet (perhaps because he is a very accomplished professional) that has proved remarkably accurate on the available info. He no longer shares those insights here given the less than constructive agendas, which I can understand. In this expansion phase production growth vs costs is my key metric, value add difficult to quantify.
Do you not understand a wholesale tax, or one at the primary source, takes time to wash thru the system? Nth RE did actually raise prices roughly in correlation but perhaps this explanation from Baotou X may help:
"At the beginning of the month, pour cold water and sing a cool song.
Excerpt from: Ruidao Metal Mesh
The high temperature struck, and the reaction of the rare earth market at the beginning of the month had a cool rain, the hope of getting wet in the first line, the overall weakening down or down to become the main theme of this month, the market atmosphere is negative and tired, it is difficult to maintain optimism.
On August 2nd , there was still no good information on the market, even the only rumors. The pressure on the metal market was finally reflected. At the beginning of the month, the rare earth oxides began to decline slightly, and the long-wearing metal market was relatively numb."
(I get the impression TD may be moonlighting)
LYC QR:
"Demand for Lynas products - NdPr as well as Ce and La - remained strong and above current capacity to supply. In particular, demand from magnet makers in Japan for our NdPr continues to increase. Due to the success of our quality improvement program, we achieved record sales volumes of Ce and La to key customers outside China."
Should be patently obvious that the two speed mkt China vs ROW that I identified early in the year has only broadened if anything, note export vales YTD +26% over 2017, is that a function of Dragon policy to cap exports 44ktpa 2020 or true demand? Sustainable?
Way too many moving parts to get hung up over a primary tax impost (which actually only replaced value over volume as a more accurate means to track REE thru the system, and we are yet to hear it has been successfully implemented - the regional authorities have probably just submitted their first reports) after a first month, and as we can agree will ultimately be reflected in a true mkt, if successfully implemented.
LYC Price at posting:
$2.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)