ags valuation, page-3

Headbanger,

My take is as follows:

They are planning to start mining in 2010 with 1.5Mlbs pa with 25% going to AGS...

currently AGS has 272M shares on issue or at least 300M in 2010..

does AGS have CAPEX or is it free carried?

If uranium is $100lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 1.5Mlb x $75 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 6 cents EPS or 60 cents share price value on PE ratio of 10

if they ever get to 4.5M lb pa by 2012, if uranium is $100lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 4.5Mlb x $75 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 18 cents EPS or $1.80 share price value on PE ratio of 10

That is why this share is a dud, unless they uranium price can reach $1.50lb.

If uranium is $150lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 1.5Mlb x $125 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 10 cents EPS or $1 share price value on PE ratio of 10

if they ever get to 4.5M lb pa by 2012, if uranium is $150lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 4.5Mlb x $125 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 30 cents EPS or $3.00 share price value on PE ratio of 10.

Still a dud at $1.50 lb.

CUY is better value.

Check my numbers on the CUY thread.

V