Share
2,558 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 181
clock Created with Sketch.
06/08/18
23:16
Share
Originally posted by LNC-Link
↑
There have been three developments that have completely changed my perspective on how I view FAR now;
The first is the complete change in the attitude of a great deal of posters. The back slapping and talk of success parties as if the money is in the bank.
The second is the Pied Piper mantra. Huge cult followings of the siren sounds of the glory of unfailing management. Contributors rewarded with the thumb and glowing tributes. (I have been guilty of adding to this myself...but no more). Words such a 'inconceivable' when discussing failure are dangerous.
The third is the growing list of unfulfilled and delayed company pronouncements.
FAR is not infallible. There are many things that could go wrong which could easily hurt vunerable shareholders. We are all steadily starting to lose sight of each and every persons obligation to remind others to do their own DD and to remember that comments are opinions unless verified as fact. Hard questions and digging should still be encouraged.
The share market can reward but it can be very damaging as well.
I have now taken all ignored members off my list and will read each and every one of their comments, good, meaningless or bad.
The good ship FAR is on a good course, it has some good assets and it has above average management. They aren't God's and they are also capable of making human mistakes along with the rest of us.
Also there are external events that could trip each and everyone of us up including share-owning management.
The world economy is closing in on the longest and weakest economic cycle ever with the most heavily indebted households ever seen. Inflation and interest rates are on the rise. A stock market meltup looks to be in progress.
Geopolitical tensions are rising in both trade and war.
Either of the above could shut down finance and development programs.
I have a large holding of FAR shares and am comfortable with my exposure. I am sure many others are as well. I just don't want to see others piling in to this stock thinking that it is a slam dunk who could get hurt.
It could do very well if Samo comes in...and as a fall back SNE will back stop most investments taken up at current prices....but as I have mentioned the whole project could be waylayed if there is a black swan event....can you afford that risk?
I personally have taken asx index puts which expire in December as insurance to get me past Samo Spud....that's just me and it gives me some comfort. It's not for everyone.
First things first. I will be happy when the farmout has been confirmed and concluded. I will be happier when Stenna has been officially notified of drill location and are steaming south. I will be even happier when Spud has occurred....and I will be happiest when we get notified of an elephant called Samo spouting oil from it's trunk. Possibly only a few months away.
If none of that happens then I will roll up my puts into June next year and wait out FID... again that's just my tactics because I don't have blind Faith...
Most of all to ALL FAR holders....best of luck, but be careful.
Expand
so let me get this straight - youre heddging FAR with asx index puts - thats ridiculous.
its a 4/5 yr proposition you need to just let it ride until you have substantial news either way to make an informed decision.
If you concerned abt a general market pullback and want to make some money fro that then I suggest just do a betashare leveraged bear ETF like BBUS or BBOZ is much better for what you trying to do, or think you achieving
But dont do it for a hedge against FAR - do it becuase you taking a bet on a general mrkt rout. FAR itself will have a low beta to market.
There are just so many better and more inexpensive ways to hedge an oil explorer which i not going to go into now, but rethink what u doing.