Vtg trading and fair value, page-9

By my reckoning VTG should have 111 stores at end of FY18 (don't know about any divestments or closures in 2H though). They didn't issue any downgrade so presumably the stated $38m to $43m stands. $20m was racked up in 1H. I do think it likely to be at the bottom end though as VTG have been surprising to the downside in the last few years. At $38m EBITDA, eps will be around 11.5c, so the current SP deserves a significant bounce.

My issues are with the macro scene in this industry. Firstly, the uptake of 5G is expected to be slow with people hanging off until 2020 when its more robust. The much vaunted TLS 'premium margin' and its dominant 49% of market share will be under pressure from a fast improving Optus. Throw in Vodafone and the new competitor TPG who can only compete on price...low price, and TLS will be wanting to trim costs and commissions, big time. They've as much as said this. This is going to directly affect VTG. By how much, I don't know and here's hoping the company will inform us late next week.

Also hopefully, we will get some insight into the NIMA foray. To date it is looking decidedly slow.