1) After the first strike, and what has happened in the last 3 months with the CR and destruction of capital since the raising, do you see Wayne staying in the role of CEO at Admedus long term? If so, how do you believe this would be achieved?
DG: Yes - I see wayne staying on. He has missed one significant target however he has thought very long term with the product development portfolio and business plan -sometimes i think its easier to hit longer term plans (aka the chinese government) than short term plans which ALWAYS have blips in there. Based on longer term vision, the returns will likely be bigger IMO than could have been imagined 3 years ago for just cardiocel alone. I was going to sell out a few years ago - before WP came along, i'd calculated we were close to insolvency and had no real future - hoping for HSV-2 for personal reasons (
@ralom).
For the record, I think he is the best option short term, medium and long term until the vision executed, but I don't believe he the credibility to lead the company long term.
DG: Everyone entitled to their opinion. Lets see how the next 6 months plays out noting TAVR getting closer to a deal IMO.
2) The general consensus is the company needs approximately $20m to see it through to the inflection of revenue vs spending. You acknowledge that there will be significant dilution from here, with a market cap of roughly $38.5m and 284m shares on the register (which is 2.84 billion pre consolidation shares), do you think it is realistic to expect another 1/3 or ~100m shares on the register? Will you participate in any raising moving forward, what would the "incentives" need to be for you to participate?
DG: I don't have that much cash left personally but i have recently sold lots of stock just in case. I'd participate to my limits.
Regarding realism -> Personally i think we are lucky not be have been diluted further. I'd rather have an extra hundred million shares on the register and have a real chance of hitting the big time than have a tight register and only cardiocel. People see things differently though and I'm not here to argue opinions.
3) If you would have known in advance the 4C was going to be as bad as it was ($2.6m), would you have held your position or sold prior to the 4c if given the option? I know this might seem like an odd question, but I want to understand what your "break point" is / would have been. It seems your hand has been forced into holding here - even though you have a long term timeframe. At what point will you sell, or are you so deep in the company your position now "hold no matter what"?
DG: Was 2.7m, not 2.6m. IMO 4c increment in revenue was actually ok - but guidance set up unrealistic expectations and made it sound garbage.
I'm not a trader - that much is obvious. The reason I am holding is (unlike many others here on HC) i see this as more of an annoying blip and 4 month delay in an approval to get our real first high value product into Europe noting its already kicking goals in North America. Make no mistake once AHZ gets those 3D approvals in Europe - 3D and vascucel will sell and revenue will ramp.
My timeframe has always been 2020 as a minimum however if even if this funding deal didn't work out there are still multiple options. I suggested to WP previously why not sell infusions and focus on the core - use the money to push hard for the last 6 months. Heck if really desparate we could likely get a TAVR co-development deal now but instead of 15/20m.. maybe only 10/15m. So there are options and inherent value still in the company that people are forgetting. We also have a decent stake in immunotherapies which now has a decent chance of survival and supposedly going to be funded by StarBright holdings. So I guess at this stage, I'm holding no matter what. I'm not going to race to the door in a panicked fashion and cut my losses irrationally but it would have been nice to sell at 37c and buy at 13.5.
If TAVR / SAVR failed tomorrow, and immunotherapies deal failed, then i'd re-consider very seriously, but noting we still have about 10 years of data that suggest no-calcification and a product that doesn't need washing prior to use.
I also want to clarify something - I'm not saying Ratty isn't smart by selling, I'm just saying he helped push million shares onto the market which IMO caused the price to decrease further than it perhaps should have. This is after he said he only had the best interests of shareholders at heart. My interests don't seem served.
4) You clearly hold Wayne in high regard, and I am trying to understand at what point you feel he would have known we were not going to hit the guidance. You say in your post "Wayne would have known after the AGM", do you believe this knowledge to be material and should have been released to market? On reflection, do you think the information that was released via the ASX was factual, or misleading?
DG: I have no idea of the date at which WP would have finally realised. I would guess the board would have known sometime in June because they track sales daily and would have realised at some point the European approvals for 3D had not come and were not coming. Even 2 weeks of 3D and vascucel sales in Europe might have added $300k to the bottom line and put 3.0m for adapt sales which wouldn't have been intrepreted so drastically. So IMO they did their best - put it out there, failed, got smacked very hard and reassess how they give guidance in the future. Personally I'd much rather have guidance to get a feel for what is possible, then have no guidance and no idea where we should be.
So in hindsight I would think WP should never have given such a stretch target as guidance. I don't personally think he should have released a failed guidance to the market if he had started negotiations on a cap raising which i am guessing as likely as "we the shareholders" would have wanted it done as the highest price possible - you can't have your cake and eat it too. I am of course assuming we are looking at more institution type raisings rather than retail and via an overseas investor as WP hasn't been to Australia as far as I know.
5) I am not sure if you saw my post at
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/so...not-say-and-imply-in-the-agm-meeting.4337930/ but I break down some numbers around the forecast of $4.4m and what revenues needed to be up to and after the AGM to hit the target.
DG: I haven't followed Hotcopper much as been relying on talking to other large holders and Wayne directly.
The key takeaways I have are:
At what point do you believe investors should have been told the forecast was WAY off (almost 40%)?
DG: I was as stressed as anyone on the morning of the release. prior to posting and after a week I have done signficant research. All I will say is that i think the long term 2020 plan is still very viable, valid and as profitable as WP has alluded to. See comments above. I also would like to note, a reforecast and revised guidance has been provided with the 4C
6) You talk about fickle short term holders, but with the SP in a steady decline for the last 4+ years from $1.80 to $0.135c, at what point are holders not deemed fickle for selling after multiple raises, dilution, and management whose primary interest seem to be their salaries rather than "having skin in the game" and taking stock based incentives - as evidenced by the first strike at the AGM?
DG:The share price spiked at $1.80 unrealistically on something called a 85% VAX result that had everyone thinking we were 2 years away from being billionaires. Little did we know. So that is a huge disconnect noting I invested for personal reasons relating to HSV-2. However since then we have had a long road and people lose interest.
I'm also sick of this salaries comment. In his previous role and from previous conversations with WP, he was on $4.5m USD which he gave up to take this role. So another reason for my thinking is why would any guy in an VP job, give it up unless he saw something bigger - same can be said for Simon Buckingham and John Seaburg.
Regarding fickleness, I think everyone has their limits and the comment is not meant in a bad way. There is a long term plan. I have as much skin in the game as anyone to their capacity. I would love to have had the foresight to sell at 37c and buy back now. I feel equally sorry for Simon Buckingham who just turned $100k into about $40k so yes they directors have skin in the game and still do. How much did you contribute during the previous cap raise. I believe WP and John Seaburg did $50k also... I'm not going to make assumptions about strikes ect but I do know TAVR, SAVR, 3D, Vascucel cost money to develop and train doctors to use and produce. This is what you signed up for when HSV-2 results were seemingly indeterminate and very preliminary at $1.80 - a real plan to get us back on track. This is why i have stayed invested because I see a bigger picture with longer term goals - something previous management had no plan for. WP has said that the sheep trial was really amazing and stated the doctor was literally gobsmacked at how quickly the sheep returned to normal (in 30mins vs typical 90mins). This is due to the biomechanical properties of the device. This is why i stay invested because if and when we get TAVR, SAVR, and other 3D shaped tissues to market, I will never ever ever have to work again. So fickleness is also a negative function of patience (or stubborness). Unfortunately I also think most people don't even know what TAVR / SAVR stand for and probably don't believe the rhetoric around it hence the fickle nature of this stock.
7) IF the forecasts were based on regulatory approvals in Europe, do you think it is acceptable for Wayne to have included these projected revenues into the forecast numbers? If so, do you think it was acceptable for Wayne to re-iterate his forecast at the AGM when we were half way through the quarter (24th May), if the approvals had not yet been granted?
DG: I was as stunned and dissapointed as anyone on July 31st and lost a few days sleep with anxiety. What i will say is that I've come to terms very quickly that my investment isn't at risk and that although I get diluted a lot- I still have a very high probability chance of success of getting TAVR and everything else to market. I think its not a black and white answer either. It depends on many factors which we may not be privy too. I also think they delayed the result hoping for the extra $300k to 400k which never came. I also think they were likely told approvals were meant to be either may or june, but the rules have changed. Can we as equally get a class action against the European Union Medical Approvals for giving us misleading information and changing their minds?
8) What do you believe the timelines to be for TAVR and SAVR before the are available for sale in all markets? Do you believe we will get approval in all jurisdictions at the same time, or is there the potential for delays like we have seen with 3D?
DG: Based on previous conversations I think an initial co-development deal will be done 1st half 2019. I believe i know who the company will likely be as some of the main doctors on the advisory board also advise the other company. I've been following this really closely and believe the TAVR advisory board doctors will be singing the praises of the valve which give us a very good foot in the door. I believe we could be on the market as soon as 3 years or as long as 5 years based on previous discussions. As far as Jurisdictions go, once we have approval in the US, then i couldn't give a rats as that will give us huge and growing revenue - even 10% of market would make this last 3 months hell seem like a funny joke. However, keeping it real, no-one actually knows how long to get approval in other locations such as Europe.
Regarding time to market in the US, It all depends on how big a human trial is required based on the TAVR boards feedback.
9) December 2017 4C and March 2018 4C had forecast outgoings of roughly $11.5m. The June 2018 4C has forecast outgoings of $12.6m. With the proposed launch of new products, do you believe the company will be able to maintain spending, or do you think it will increase?
DG: I think WP and the board will be looking at ways to reduce expenditure as much as practical - they got their slap at the AGM vote and now the egg on the face missed guidance and need to get funding. Of course I want revenue higher and costs lower -but i also recognise that we now can't stop the TAVR momentum although other projects might be paused based on the last few months missed guidance. I believe the doctors are paid in shares and costs for the board not as high as people might think but it all adds up when you are running short but TAVR is what investors will invest in and for! i know we are still going full throttle with vascucel 3D and IMO opinion - the way to get costs under control is to increase revenue by more countries and more products in those countries.
10) If this wasn't Admedus (and your obvious close relationship with management), and you participated in a capital raising at 30c 3 months ago based on the information you were provided in the investor presentations and AGM, and you suffered a 55% loss with possible further losses, and almost guaranteed significant dilution, would you consider, or even pursue legal avenues of recourse (participate in a class action for example)?
DG: Tough question but no - in reality i wouldn't seek legal action because others have sold lower than i thought realistic. I would consider very seriously if it turns out the 10 years no calcification was a mis-direction and that TAVR wasn't actually going that well.
The thing is - we have all had access to the balance sheet and have seen the breakdown between cardio and infusions on cost / revenue basis - with previous management - we never got that. We all knew that costs were going to be tight this last 9 months and many such as musky have provided data.
When guidance was given, it implied that everything had to go perfect to hit $34m yearly and $4.4m for the quarter. If you personally didn't question what happens if they miss guidance, whose issue is that?
Secondly, revised guidance has been provided with the 4C for the year which is more importantly and has now been more conservatively estimated. i think that this is more important that people know what is realitic for the remainder of the year.
I also honestly believe this is just an uncomfortable and painful blip. I'm not going to hang anyone out to dry for that. Under Rodne - we never got guidance - just lovely smiling videos. WP made a guess of 21m first period and hit it. He has told everyone exactly what he is doing and the long term plan. You need to be realistic that we actually had a good jump in revenue (2.2m to 2.7m for Adapt only) and that Europe now has about 150 centres and new countries coming on line with Italy and Spain. The numbers are trending in the right direction but there will be hiccups. You either deal with it, accept it, or don't accept it. I personally do because I believe in the long term plan and can understand it.
I will leave the questions there, I have plenty more, but I feel these are the key ones I would appreciate your perspective on.
Again, I ask these with complete respect, and will understand should you choose not to respond.
DG: Mate - always happy to be as honest as I can with a fellow share holder but note my reasons for investing will be different to yours and most other people. My answers above are my opinions only and I may be totally wrong - but i've only ever put it out there so others can perhaps learn from my mistakes or successes if they pan out that way.
Cheers
(20min delay)