Doing the numbers, page-63

Just to reassure you that predicting a companies progress is generally more accurate than predicting our life's progress @Jack1960 ...

If you develop the model based on the first five quarters, then use them to predict the most recent 4C results (6th qtr) you get:

Receipts predicted $1.35m (actual was $1.33m)
Outflows predicted $3.9m (actual was $4.2m)

These predictions indicated that receipts were progressing as expected. Outflows were up a bit - why? - the introduction of the BOOSTS probably - so not a problem.

I fully get what you are saying, but the analogy actually underplays the power of data analysis substantially. Of course "significant surprises" can shift the model in either direction, but as the data collection history progresses, less than you might imagine.

I look forward to using the model to estimate the next 4C results before they arrive. (After I have used the predictions to adjust my own position ).