Opti, I agree with a lot of what you say. I think and I hope you are being conservative.
Management are particularly vague about sensor number details and I don't think it's out of the realms of possibility to shock and surprise us all. If discussion are well under way with other airlines, surely one could expect an agreement immediately followed by a production order, and bang, there's 4 months of 100% factory production. It can happen like that.
My estimates based on 20 Tier 1 airlines taking up the tech in the next 10 years equates to an average SP increase of $1.50 as each Tier 1 signs on (only taking licensing royalties into account).
Your current valuation of $2.50 seems very reasonable, heck, even $5 is a good deal if you buy in after one of the bombshell announcements.
The market has a short attention span and likes to hear catchy advertising jingles. It obviously doesn't like obscurity but from obscurity to $ figures, can happen in an instant. Maybe tomorrow.
The hard work has been done and I'm appreciative I didn't have to do any of it!
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