@sabine great research and I certainly agree that shorts can completely destroy capital investment but there are a few other fundamentals at play IMO as well:
1\. The last year has effectively been wasted by KDR - they should be a lot further along the project development pipeline but are still at the DFS stage?
2\. There is a couple of years pre-strip (at least) if selective mining of gold ore to stockpile or process before accessing lithium resource!
3\. EV market development has been lagging expectations (partly through policy, partly through market fundamentals, partly through problems to manufacture).
4\. Geopolitics are slowing market development and integration - most of the potential suppliers are still trying to weigh what effect having the major customer as an integral development partner in the raw commodities!
5\. Given where KDR are along the project development pipeline it is improbable they will be producing battery grade LiOH/Li2CO3 before 2022!
6\. Recent developments with Tesla (namely Elon Musk) place significant questions over present “deals”!
7\. Current escalating global trade tensions pose interesting questions on how Chinese partners of SQM may affect supply to American (Tesla) or European car manufacturers if relations further deteriorate!
8\. Back to shorts and I’m keeping a close eye on when they start closing out - a few jumped off the jolly wagon last week but there are still nearly 10m giving KDR a jolly old rogering - my best guesstimate is sometime before mid September many will close out but time will tell!
AIMHO-DYOR-GLTAH!
