Again my pessimism tells me decision makers like the cheaper upfront cost of lithium - as none of them will be in their position in 10 years when the VRFBs are really paying off.
Two things regarding Lithium cost advantage over VRFB
- a vanadium industry representative board is exploring leasing the electrolyte to operators
- This announcement from Protean - Based on the use of a compact laser bonded assembly process, energy stack production cost could be reduced by 50%.
So 40-50% of the upfront cost deferred by leasing the electrolyte - so it becomes an annual lease cost. Also if returns are strong enough this will attract a lot of institutional investors - the life cycle of these batteries is already measured in the decades.
Secondly, 50% of the overall cost in the form of membrane reducing by 50%, or 25% of the overall.
We have gone from an upfront 100% cost of a VRFB to
50% leased say over 5 years so 10% recurring +
25% with reduction of overall cost due to the membrane improvements.
