Ann: Diggers and Dealers Investor Presentation, page-217

Its hard when the share price get punched in the face day in day out.

But some fundamentals are worth looking at

PRICE of product has been fixed (this idea is what has made SBM not only survive, but thrive , especially in terms of being able to bank cash)

Anyhooooo, with prices fixed at 800USD per tone....

Assuming they make nameplate, 155000 TPA......Im not factoring in resent throughput rates, just make nameplate thanks

That's 121M USD in revenue (155000 X880)

using @ 72 cents average for the year USd /AUD , may be lower at the rate things are going

The merged group should see revenue of 172M AUD

Then add on some income from TA if you like as bonus

This is pretty good for its first full year of production imo

Merged group yesterday was worth say 400 M AUD

I suppose you could simply take your NET profit figure on 172, be conservative an times by 10 for PE to give you a rough fair market cap back of envelope type stuff

Let say you use 25 % net underlying profit on 172, so 43...…...times 10, gives me merged market cap at 430M...about 30 M north of here.... a couple of cents....

Add in some revenue for extra production, which is still sold at 800, more if its higher concertation, some TA sales and maybe you add more to back of envelope 430M,,,

Alternativly, deduct huge amounts for salt water , crazy downtimes outside of actual data to date, some earthquake disasters, say underlying profit is negative and you will come up with a price far south of 35 cents I suspect,,,,,interestingly, the short sellers don't seem to be taking this position or idea up as the positions are low compared to the others in the industry.....

Anyway, this is just an exercise, obviously if it crashed , it would seem to be pretty good value, maybe this is why the shorts are really hammering this Lithium stock.

Either way I don't think it would stay too long below 35 ish, because the production is seemingly exceeding nameplate, its reserves are solid and expected to expand but most importantly it has financed itself very well with this offtake agreement. It may turn out to be below spot in a few months, but it has provided it TAW/AMAL with the security to get the business off the ground and to grow.

Something to be said for long term fixed price offtake agreements,,,,,SBM did a lot of hedging and look at it now, it makes as much in the first half as what ppl believe is a monster NCM, it 500M if debt is gone and it now has 100's of millions in the bank


Anyway, just did this as an exercise this morning as I watch yet another hammering, its not all negative just the share price sentiment imo…….

See how we go, this is not a recommendation to buy,,,its was just doneas I happened to be writing down some figures on this this morning.....