Between April 4- commission date, and the investor preso July 19, there was 623 tonnes produced (p11 last investor preso). Then adding in the 300 tonnes roughly produced since August 1st, and assuming nameplate was reached for at least a week between the quarterly puts a solid very minimum of 300 tones between the end of last quarter April (the monthly tonnage leading was over 250 and the ramp up was successful). That’s going to be around 1200 tonnes for sale. 400 in the warehouse and 100 sold leaves 700 tonnes remaining somewhere. Unless the wording is tricky and specific it says “pleased to announce the first sales of concentrate from its newly FULLY operational graphmada mine”. Could be sales were made from concentrate prior to fully operational. That plus 6 weeks (750 ish tonnes) to come til quarter end gives concentrates around 1200+750 =1950 tonnes of currently stockpiled/to be sold graphite by end of quarter. Even maxing the warehouse would leave around 950 tonnes to be sold. If we say sales are at estimated basket of 1374 usd per tonne ( research note at baillieu) minus 10% margin of error leaves 1236/tonne estimate. Revenue estimate 1236*950 tonnes=1.1M usd or 1.6M aud. Costs = 500usd with a 10% margin of error so 550 usd =686 usd profit margin on 950 tonnes = 652,000usd/890k aud profits. With around 1000 tonnes remaining (this quarter) worth roughly 1.2m(1.6Maud) in revenues. All with conservative pricing from over a year ago(much lower then) with margins of error applied. Possibility of 2.3Musd revenue/3.14aud revenues/stock by end of quarter. If the keep 500 tonnes at most times in th warehouse Then 1500 tonnes produced next quarter can be sold with a solid reserve in the warehouse. Semi alcoholic napkin math, if it’s right. Long story short- hell of a path ahead it seems
BSM Price at posting:
2.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
