The more I look into this result the better it gets (and Mr Market has been kind - thanks to those who sold to me at 31 and 29c this morning).
This result clearly reflects a new majority owner who wants to invest in the business now, likely for 2 reasons. 1) to depress near term earnings to support a new bid and 2) to drive earnings upside over the next few years to facilitate an exit.
PGR's sales are better than I had expected. Total revenues declined $5.3m, however this included $5.1m of discontinued unprofitable sales, and $4.7m of sales lost from closed unprofitable stores.
The lower earnings result was driven primarily by the investment in the setup for the new brand acquisition, and digital and other initiatives that should drive growth in the coming years. If this business was being run in a traditional public market manner, much of this expenditure would not have been made. That said, this type of investment is exactly what you would want as a long term investor and actually makes this business more valuable it was that without this expenditure. That said, public markets (particularly where trading is dominated by retail investors that just see the (meaningless) negative EPS number) struggle to see beyond the headlines and a media driven retail armageddon.
This is a diversified, successful retailer with a strong and growing online presence that is investing for future growth. Significant earnings upside is virtually guaranteed for next year. Given Colleseum have played their cards well so far, if the price remains anywhere near 29c, it would be very surprising for them not to lob a new bid (by the way, I would rather remain a holder until their exit as a bid will be well below what this business is worth).
PGR Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
