Ann: Quarterly Activities Report - June 2018, page-50

Understood Dr Fouad. I wonder if the "qualitative" side, if it is based on as much research as possible of similar cases and the current case (as posters here seem to be doing) can translate into an odds assessment? At the end of the day no bet is certain but if the odds are judged as favourable (and yes watching out for biases - not just punting) its worth taking.
This from Michael Mauboussin:
“One way to think about it is to contrast a roulette wheel with a pari-mutuel betting system. If you play a fair game of roulette, whatever prediction you make will not affect the outcome. The prediction’s outcome is independent of the prediction itself. Contrast that with a prediction at the racetrack. If you believe a particular horse is likely to do better that the odds suggest you will bet on the horse. But your bet will help shape the odds. For instance, if all bettors predict a particular horse will win, the odds will reflect that prediction, and the return on investment will be poor.
The analogy carries to the stock market. If you believe a stock is undervalued and start to buy it, you will help raise the price, this driving down prospective returns. This point underscores the importance of expected value, a central concept in any probabilistic exercise. Expected value formalizes the idea that your return on an investment is the product of the probabilities and the various outcomes and the payoff from each outcome.”
Although we are in the minority on MZI the idea is that at current prices the company is a favourable bet given the facts and our interpretation of them. I think the new CEO is doing a very good careful job so roll on the next and the next quarter with positive confirmation of our judgement!