Prospective resource is not an exact science until a drill bit finds these things out.
These resources very rarely will be commercial.
FAN1 for example.
Pre drill resource was...gross oil in place STOIIP
P90.....250mmbbls.
P50.....950mmbbls.
P10.....2,500mmbbls.
The second FAN well was deemed a dud.
SNE1....
P50 pre drill estimate was 154mmbbls gross.
Instead the result was.
IC....150mmbbls.
2C....330mmbbls.
3C....670mmbbls
Moral here is nothing is a given with pre drill estimates.
These estimates would also have been RISC estimates commissioned by FAR.
COS .... whats it mean?, page-23
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