Malaysia and China, page-47

NdPr China Domestic Price (VAT excluded)

Q4 FY17 36.5 USD/kg

vs

Q4 FY18 44.2 USD/kg

+7.7 USD/kg

= 21% appreciation NdPr values averaged over Q4 YoY.

Not so hard really.

https://www.lynascorp.com/Shared%20Documents/Investors%20and%20media/Reporting%20Centre/Quarterly%20reports/2018/180720%20Quarterly%20Report%20June%202018%201822050.pdf

With a 50% increase in sales volumes to Japan, combination increase in mkt share & underlying demand, it is a reasonable assumption Lynas would have realised greater than 21% appreciation in av NdPr sales values given RfS production 1447t, less 100t retained Q4 18, vs 1343t Q4 17.

The same Q comparison ASP:

Q4 FY17 A$15.9/kg

vs

Q4 FY18 A$21.3/kg

+A$5.4/kg

= 34% appreciation ASP averaged over Q4 YoY.

With Chinese exports basically static H1 YoY:

"China's cumulative exports of rare earths from January to June were 2,6297.4 tons, a decrease of 0.33%."

They realised a 26% increase in total sales value:

"From January to June, China exported 256.7 million US dollars, up 26% year-on-year."

http://newmat.chinaiol.com/xtcl/s/0713/87198776.html

Based on Lynas reported sales values YoY it should not be so difficult to understand price appreciation YoY had a far greater impact on Chinese export revenues jumping 26% H1 rather than any vague guess at a shift in sales mix.