(Answered in order of appearance.)
1) Yes.
2) I think it's safe to say that many of us were initially disappointed to see the 5c CR/RI, rather than matching BMM's price with a 6c deal. I suspect it was the result of AF playing hard ball, arguing that his 5c proposal resulted in certainty for all concerned and an opportunity for existing SHers to participate in the future (hoped-for) upside, rather than BMM's
informal conditional proposal for a
100% takeover near the bottom of the cycle (which AF had the power to block, anyway). I think BMM made an fundamental tactical error by making their proposal conditional on a 100% takeover - especially with AF sitting at 11.7% at the time. On the upside, however, rights holders (i.e. present holders, plus 'ticket' purchasers) get an opportunity to participate for 5c, rather than 6c.
3) No. Not necessary, unless the T/O offer was made formal, which it never was. Shareholders delegate certain authority to the BoD and they acted within their remit. (The presence of the informal 6c offer, may have acted to extract a higher price from AF to get it close enough to not raise any viable questions about impropriety and not acting in SH best interests. I reckon we'll never know for sure.)
4) Nice try, but you know better than most that SPs usually gravitate down to the discounted RI price when the process is live - especially when people outside the tent can purchase tickets (rights) to the show (participation) for next to nothing. The true test will be where the SP goes after the process is completed and the dust settles. The underlying NP action/trend and the influence it will have on POS can't be ignored, though.
5) Who knows?
Mum knows! How do you think she got this far? (watch it to the end) (lol) (Come on, mate, that's gotta be worth a smile. I won't tell anyone - honest!)
6) Yes.
7) He does.
8) You do realize that if he (AF) "got it for a song", then all the other shareholders who ride his coat-tails and participate in the RI - a group that will most likely represent a cohort of ~50% of the registry - will also have done pretty well for themselves? That's gotta be a good thing. Right?
All Together Now: "
We're... happy little (Aussie) battlers... as bright as bright can be (or not)." (lol)
I'm a bit confused about this last point being made. By structuring the RI
more than 4c, but
less than 6c, it:
a) sends a message that AF has confidence in the future prospects of the company (by paying more than 4c); and
b) provides a mechanism in which Australian and NZ investors (
only!) can join AF and management by voting with their wallets and paying a discount to the now-apparent ill-planned 6c full takeover proposal (i.e. by paying 5c).
Historical Comparisons:
AF
did not participate in the 2014 $30m CR. His only involvement was to hold his hand out and collect the repayment of that revolving $8m bridging loan that was originally made during the 2012 funding round.
It's also worth highlighting that immediately before the 10c RI back in April 2012 (
announcement 03/04/12, with the
prospectus released 11/04/12) the POS SP was trading at 17.5c (source: IRESS. i.e. the raw price it traded at that time, not the subsequently adjusted price of 14c which many historical chart will plot). That 10c RI price represented a
43% discount to the SP at that time! Comparing the price action of POS at that time to Ni readers will see a general downtrend in Ni and sideways with a slight downward bias in POS and certainly no evidence of a SP pump in POS immediately preceding that RI.
This time around we have Twiggy offering a price
premium (at 5c) to the most recent active price discovery of 3.9-4.4c. When was the last time we ever saw that? From Twiggy, no less? It screams "buy" to me, but that's just me.
So, in closing, it's... about the vibe... and Mabo... and The Constitution... Yeah, The Constitution.
I rest my case.
Anyhoo, feel free to disagree, T*. You know I won't be ramming this down your throat, but you do know how I enjoy a nice spirited debate!
Oh dear lordy. I just proofread this thing and I sound like a fanboy! Time for a Bex, a lie-down, and some quiet personal introspection! (lol)
Z
PS. Just saw your link to that AFR article. Hopefully
this one is readily accessible.
(*I wanted to call you TroyBoy, as one does, but then I realized how it abbreviates!) [spine shiver... brrrrr!]
(20min delay)