a few rough calculations on share price

Hi all yesterday i printed off the investor presentation at work, bundled it up and read it last night in bed. Along the way i did some rough calculations on Income, EPS, PE raios and poss Divies, I thought i would share with you all.

Now if im wrong by any counts i did these calculations in my head, and of course im no accountant, hopefully you will enjoy.


INCOME

Assuming a 2Mtpa output @ $350/tonne OPEX @ $100/ tonne and CAPEX $40m and share register of 94.3m on offer

2Mtpa - $700m/yr
OPEX - $200m/yr
CAPEX - $40m
TOATAL - $460m/yr
DIV by 94.3m Shares
EPS = $4.88/share

Assuming s 2Mtpa output @ $400/tonne

2Mtpa - $800m/yr
OPEX - $200m/yr
CAPEX - $40m
TOTAL - $560m/yr
DIV by 94.3m shares
EPS = $5.94

Assuming a 3Mtpa output @ $350/tonne

3Mtpa - $1050m/yr
OPEX - $300m/yr
CAPEX - $40m
TOTAL - $710m/yr
DIV by 94.3m shares
EPS = $7.53

Assuming a 3Mtpa output @ 4400/tonne

3Mtpa - $1200m/yr
OPEX - $300m/yr
CAPEX - $40m
TOTAL - $860m/yr
DIV by 94.3m shares
EPS = $9.12

so far we have EPS possibilites of $4.88, $5.94, $7.53 $ 9.12



Now lets look at PE Ratio at 1, 5, 10, 20. (IPL currently 20PE)


EPS
4.88 5.94 7.53 9.12

PE 1 $4.88 $5.94 $7.53 $9.12
PE 5 $22.94 $29.70 $37.60 $45.60
PE 10 $48.80 $59.40 $75.30 $91.20
PE 20 $97.60 $118.80 $150.60 $182.40


Now lets look at Possible Divies, i will assume a 5%,10%,20%,30%,40% and 50% payout ratios

EPS
4.88 5.94 7.53 9.12

D 5% $0.22 $0.29 $0.37 $0.45
I 10% $0.48 $0.59 $0.75 $0.91
V 20% $0.97 $1.19 $1.50 $1.82
I 30% #1.44 $1.78 $2.29 $2.73
E 40% $1.95 $2.37 $3.01 $3.64
S 50% $2.24 $2.29 $3.76 $4.56


As you can see ther is a big difference between 2Mtpa and 3Mtpa output. I would howerver like to highlight the fact in the investor presentation it does say INITIAL TARGET - 2-3Mtpa. so with that said it may mean in years to come that they may be able to ramp up production further.

If we were to have any further increases in RP the sky is the limit.

Thank you for your time.

Harry