Ann: 2018 Half Year Financial Report, page-97

Rocinante

I agree with your theory about the possible third party financing of the shorters and as well as Oil I would certainly throw Coal into the mix - and if you want long-odd conspiracy possibilities, also consider ICE car manufacturers or Power providers! Also, are the 'FFS - Funds for Shorting' going to MS et al - see '1' below and/or the loaning companies!

I also think the shorting for take-over is hard to fathom, because someone may pick up a few at these prices, but they are going to have to pay a hell of a lot more the larger parcels they will need. Also on this point, there have been no "significant holding" notifications (other than MS and they have to give theirs back at some stage.)

Equally there are currently around 75mil shares that have been sold short - or declared available for shorting. (If someone can substantiate with fact on this point, I welcome it) This means a couple of things: '1' There are at least 15 shorters holding less than a substantial holding of 5 mil in the mix...many of which one would assume have been borrowed like MS have done (but not above a substantial holding)!
'2' At some point they have to return these shares to the lenders. These have to be bought on market. And when you consider the turnover figures of:
Aug est 74 mil - top price 307
Jul 71 mil - 332
Jun 72 mil - 366
....The shorters will possibly have to buy the equivalent of every traded share for a month (based on the past 3) Undo-able I hear you say ... so we assume they can get 50% of the trades for themselves. This takes us back to Jan when 165 mil went through with a top price of 454 fat cents!

All of this suggests some very very interesting GXY watching ahead! Eg Shorters need to get their parcels back, because its becoming apparent that a significant amount of turnover is just churn(shorters/traders buying and selling amongst themselves.) and they can't push prices down any further. First of the shorters to the door and they start to cannibalise each other. This starts to increase GXY price, lenders want their shares back to enable profit taking when they please - further demand from shorters to enable a return. Rinse and repeat etc etc. (I'm looking forward to my speculation here becoming real, as it will be a great spectator sport! And good for the pocket!
Also consider, of the top 20 holders from April, only HSBC - 21%, JP Morgan - 12% and Citicorp 6.6% were significant owners. Ausbil and Blackrock were listed as Substantial Holders (7.8%, 6.6%) - I assume they 'control' a number of holdings/funds! None of them have put in variation notices.

Watch this space - and comment on my fiction welcome!