Just a postscript to this...
The available pool of retail rights (i.e. non-AF, non-BMM, and non-BoD) will be ~956m Entitlements (i.e. ~70% of total Entitlements).
If we assume a take-up rate of 60% (40% shortfall) by retail holders it equates to potentially ~382m Rights up for grabs (956m x 40%). Some (many?) of these unused rights will "leak" from the system and won't be offered for sale during the limited Entitlements trading window. They will naturally flow to AF as sub-underwriter who will purchase them as Shortfall Shares. The size of this number is one of the big unknowns.
So far, only 27m Entitlements have traded on-market, but that's before the real game kicks off tomorrow (when all punters are expected to have online access to their holdings for trading). CFD providers making a market for their clients will add to the churn to the volume totals, which will add to the noise. The question for Squadron will be where the flow of surplus on-market rights purchases are going: to enthusiastic retail holders (no threat)?; or to BMM (a potential material threat)? Squadron wants to see very low Entitlement trading volumes, otherwise they may very well feel compelled to enter the market in order to fortify their position from a possible broadside.
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