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09:45
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Originally posted by sandy68
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Thank you Bre Wolf .$328.7 - $19.39 = $309.31 and + 10% = $340 million (round down). This is what Morgans have for FY19 sales estimates and this is how they got to this. It does not factor in Vietnam or other product mix revenue. It is almost guaranteed to be revised upwards. We know now that the absence of SAMR only makes less than 6% dent into the final revenue, as evident from FY18. Even a simple update on Vietnam sales figures will make broker revise their price targets. As for the marketing expense, management have indicated that cost savings from OPEX and better EBIDTA margins will be diverted there. This will make forecasting more predictable.Offline channel in China is very profitable and market can grow exponentially there , subject to BAL's logistical knowledge. August has ended and SAMR is due anytime now.
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Yep, good summary. For me the crucial point is that BAL are targeting revenue of $500m in FY21. Personally I still think this is conservative, but it cuts through the clutter of when they get CFDA/SAMR. When they do it will take off like a rocket, until then it will be manipulated by instos. But it's still a dangerous game for shorters because any pickup in SAMR approvals (especially when WHA get theirs - and they applied a month earlier than BAL and have passed the technical stage) will be treated positively by the market. At the end of the day, BAL is a solid company with lots of upside. The only downside I see is shorters who need to be treated as fake news. Personally, I use their antics as opportunities to top up. BAL will be a $20 stock again imo, and probably $30 one day too, so I am definitely in for the long haul.
