**IF** lower end guidance of $105 mill USD revenue is met (has been re-affirmed 3 times), then cash position outlook is relatively healthy. The effect of the PDVSA prepayment on cash showed up in H1, but will be lesser in H2. If mid to high range of guidance is met, it will be close to cash flow positive in H2.
It will be important for 2019 full year guidance to be approx $140 mill USD to be cash flow neutral. Larger Aspiral orders and early SUBRE orders will go some way to making that happen, as well as the possibility of the $100m African MoU project starting.
Cash may also vary depending on how SPV financing is set up for their BOT projects, where those funds are held and what construction milestones allows Fluence to recognize funds.
Back of envelope calculations, everyone DYOR.
In Half 1 (Jan 1st 2018 to June 30th 2018).
Starting cash = $75.153 mill
10.4 mill of 32.8 mill rev was PDVSA (prepaid).
PDVSA accounted for 31.7 % of rev.
22.4 mill cash received (adj 22.8)
Cash outgoing = approx $35 mill
Cash at end of half = $40.56 mill
Estimated Half 2 (July 1st 2018 to Dec 31st 2018).
Starting cash = $40.56 mill
15.8 mill of est 72.2 mill rev will be PDVSA (prepaid).
PDVSA will account for 21.8% of rev.
56.4 mill cash expected to be received
Approx cash outgoing = circa $65 mill
Approx cash at end of half = $31.96 mill
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