Thoughts on shorts, page-168

No way finance deal will happen before Samo results are known and reserves in SNE are declared though because SAMO is a game changer and reserves get you in the door for finance. A gusher and further farm down at Samo could fund FAR till the PE result is known.

Alternatively in 2019 when PE wraps up and Samo result is known FAR could sell out of SNE to fund Gambia appraisal or if lucky farm down from near 50% to stay in SNE free carried and fund Gambia.

Subsequent Soloo success or could trigger unitisation agreement between Gambia and Senegal which would bring FAR back into the combined SNE/Soloo JV at high %.

The Gozer is finance, but everybody can win here except the dumb folk who capitulate and sell in panic/fear. FAR needs to have multiple options for finance to hang a bit tougher - life can be tricky when you do not have cash.

Hypothetical future imagined below:

Lender " We love these assets and will definitely fund whatever you need!"
FAR "we are not certain how much we need yet"
Lender "no problems we love FAR and with these assets funding you guys is a 100% no-brainer"

Lender gets on phone to broker mates - "go short on FAR!"

sometime later....

FAR "We are ready to go, Samo was wonderful and we need to go to FID at SNE and need $300M for SNE and another $200M for appraisal and exploration on our other leases"

Lender " Sure we love FAR projects but globally funding costs have changed since we last spoke and our risk quant needs to check a few numbers, could take a little while to set up but should be no probs at a slightly higher interest rate"

FAR "OK but we are in a bit of a hurry here - I thought this was a 100% no brainer"

sometime later...

Lender " The quant has unexpectedly left the company and the board chairmans daughter had a bad reaction to weet-bix and needed to go to a swiss wheat rehab clinic so the next board meeting to approve is delayed while we recruit a new risk quant and re-assess the whole deal, should be no problems just a short delay!"

FAR " Ahhhh! OK but thats really gonna f..k us around and we need the money in the bank in 12 weeks"

Lender "I will see what I can do, dont worry it will probably all be sorted out soon"

delays continue till the last minute and FAR SP drops as funding deadline looms and cash at bank drops with no Ann.

Lender to broker mates "G0 long on FAR fellas!

FAR funding deal is magically sorted at the 11th hour with extra fine print caveats and higher interest rate in lenders favour.

FAR SP rockets to the moon and the patient LT holders and lenders and broker mates and FAR execs all win. Panic sellers lose and all is right in the world.