You're on the right track, although gold being a part of commodity index which would probably drive OZ as a whole rather than gold by itself, then the inflation and interest rate differentials come up which drive the dollar.
Also demand/supply cause exchange rate to fluctuate, since it is rather high at the moment, less overseas tourists will demand goods and services from Oz, so slowly inflation will slow and so will growth (expecially in tourist hotspots) and thus interest rates.
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