CVN

2.94%

16.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

Fundamental Value, page-96

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dangar

4,980 Posts.

295

10/09/18

13:33

Post #: 35496875

Originally posted by Sojourner ↑

Hi everyone,

Here's my back of the envelope calculations and assumptions for the Buffalo Oil project and Dorado Oil discovery.

The Buffalo development costs are based on the info provided by CVN in their presentation ($150m cap ex, $100m P.A x 4yrs op ex).

Some other assumptions (mainly with Dorado) are just a ball park guess based on my limited knowledge, but I would be interested in what others have come up with and the figures they have used.

Everything is in USD except the value per CVN share price which I've converted to AUD.

This is obviously very back of the envelope figures, DYOR.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4

1 Dorado Oil

2 Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c)

3 Recoverable oil 82,000,000 171,000,000 320,000,000

4 Revenue $65/b $5,330,000,000 $11,115,000,000 $20,800,000,000

5 Cap ex -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000

6 Op ex $20/b -$1,640,000,000 -$3,420,000,000 -$6,400,000,000

7 Gross profit $3,190,000,000 $7,195,000,000 $13,900,000,000

8 Tax - 40% -$1,276,000,000 -$2,878,000,000 -$5,560,000,000

9 NPAT $1,914,000,000 $4,317,000,000 $8,340,000,000

10 CVN share (20%) $382,800,000 $863,400,000 $1,668,000,000

11 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.449 $1.012 $1.955

12

13

14 Buffalo Oil

15 Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c)

16 Recoverable oil 15,300,000 31,100,000 47,800,000

17 Revenue $994,500,000 $2,021,500,000 $3,107,000,000

18 Cap ex -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000

19 Op ex -$400,000,000 -$400,000,000 -$400,000,000

20 Gross profit $444,500,000 $1,471,500,000 $2,557,000,000

21 Tax - 40% -$177,800,000 -$588,600,000 -$1,022,800,000

22 NPAT $266,700,000 $882,900,000 $1,534,200,000

23 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.31 $1.03 $1.80

24

25 Assumptions

26 Shares on issue 1,200,000,000

27 Oil price $65.00

28 Dorado production costs $20.00

29 1 AUD = $1.4065 USD $1.407

Expand

What is not factored in here is the cost of capex. Whether it is interest dollars or scrip dilution, it is still a cost. On top of that there is all the usual 'admin' cost burn over the years till first oil.

CVN Price at posting: 34.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Fundamental Value, page-96

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
1	Dorado Oil
2		Low case (1c)	Mid case (2c)	High case (3c)
3	Recoverable oil	82,000,000	171,000,000	320,000,000
4	Revenue $65/b	$5,330,000,000	$11,115,000,000	$20,800,000,000
5	Cap ex	-$500,000,000	-$500,000,000	-$500,000,000
6	Op ex $20/b	-$1,640,000,000	-$3,420,000,000	-$6,400,000,000
7	Gross profit	$3,190,000,000	$7,195,000,000	$13,900,000,000
8	Tax - 40%	-$1,276,000,000	-$2,878,000,000	-$5,560,000,000
9	NPAT	$1,914,000,000	$4,317,000,000	$8,340,000,000
10	CVN share (20%)	$382,800,000	$863,400,000	$1,668,000,000
11	$ per CVN share in AUD	$0.449	$1.012	$1.955
12
13
14	Buffalo Oil
15		Low case (1c)	Mid case (2c)	High case (3c)
16	Recoverable oil	15,300,000	31,100,000	47,800,000
17	Revenue	$994,500,000	$2,021,500,000	$3,107,000,000
18	Cap ex	-$150,000,000	-$150,000,000	-$150,000,000
19	Op ex	-$400,000,000	-$400,000,000	-$400,000,000
20	Gross profit	$444,500,000	$1,471,500,000	$2,557,000,000
21	Tax - 40%	-$177,800,000	-$588,600,000	-$1,022,800,000
22	NPAT	$266,700,000	$882,900,000	$1,534,200,000
23	$ per CVN share in AUD	$0.31	$1.03	$1.80
24
25	Assumptions
26	Shares on issue	1,200,000,000
27	Oil price	$65.00
28	Dorado production costs	$20.00
29	1 AUD = $1.4065 USD	$1.407

Fundamental Value, page-96

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