CVN

2.94%

16.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

Fundamental Value, page-107

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neeco68

1,832 Posts.

396

10/09/18

16:22

Post #: 35501738

Originally posted by magpie4ever ↑

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4

1 Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4

2 Dorado Oil

3 Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c)

4 Recoverable oil 82,000,000 171,000,000 320,000,000

5 Revenue $75/b $6,150,000,000 $12,825,000,000 $24,000,000,000

6 Cap ex -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000

7 Op ex $20/b -$1,640,000,000 -$3,420,000,000 -$6,400,000,000

8 Gross profit $4,010,000,000 $8,905,000,000 $17,100,000,000

9 Tax - 40% $1,604,000,000 $3,562,000,000 $6,840,000,000

10 NPAT $2,406,000,000 $5,343,000,000 $10,260,000,000

11 CVN share (20%) $481,200,000 $1,068,600,000 $2,052,000,000

12 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.62 $1.37 $2.62

13

14

15 Buffalo Oil

16 Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c)

17 Recoverable oil 15,300,000 31,100,000 47,800,000

18 Revenue $1,147,500,000 $2,332,500,000 $3,585,000,000

19 Cap ex -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000

20 Op ex -$306,000,000 -$622,000,000 -$956,000,000

21 Gross profit $691,500,000 $1,560,500,000 $2,479,000,000

22 Tax - 40% $276,600,000 $624,200,000 $991,600,000

23 NPAT $414,900,000 $936,300,000 $1,487,400,000

24 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.53 $1.20 $1.90

25

26 Assumptions

27 Shares on issue 1,100,000,000

28 Oil price $75.00

29 Dorado production costs $20.00

30 1 AUD = $1.4065 USD $1.41

Updated your spreadsheet, believe I got it right.

All figures in US dollars until $ per CVN share in AUD.

Massively undervalued.

Expand

A very useful ready reckoner for discussion purposes

I have a couple of questions:
How is Capex derived? ie $ per barrel? and wouldn't it vary for the scenarios presented?
I would assume opex and capex costs per barrel would be higher given Dorado is in shallow water?
Would Capex not increase to some degree per size of find?
The exchange rate appears to be incorrect, should read 1 USD = $1.41 aud

CVN Price at posting: 34.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Fundamental Value, page-107

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
1	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
2	Dorado Oil
3		Low case (1c)	Mid case (2c)	High case (3c)
4	Recoverable oil	82,000,000	171,000,000	320,000,000
5	Revenue $75/b	$6,150,000,000	$12,825,000,000	$24,000,000,000
6	Cap ex	-$500,000,000	-$500,000,000	-$500,000,000
7	Op ex $20/b	-$1,640,000,000	-$3,420,000,000	-$6,400,000,000
8	Gross profit	$4,010,000,000	$8,905,000,000	$17,100,000,000
9	Tax - 40%	$1,604,000,000	$3,562,000,000	$6,840,000,000
10	NPAT	$2,406,000,000	$5,343,000,000	$10,260,000,000
11	CVN share (20%)	$481,200,000	$1,068,600,000	$2,052,000,000
12	$ per CVN share in AUD	$0.62	$1.37	$2.62
13
14
15	Buffalo Oil
16		Low case (1c)	Mid case (2c)	High case (3c)
17	Recoverable oil	15,300,000	31,100,000	47,800,000
18	Revenue	$1,147,500,000	$2,332,500,000	$3,585,000,000
19	Cap ex	-$150,000,000	-$150,000,000	-$150,000,000
20	Op ex	-$306,000,000	-$622,000,000	-$956,000,000
21	Gross profit	$691,500,000	$1,560,500,000	$2,479,000,000
22	Tax - 40%	$276,600,000	$624,200,000	$991,600,000
23	NPAT	$414,900,000	$936,300,000	$1,487,400,000
24	$ per CVN share in AUD	$0.53	$1.20	$1.90
25
26	Assumptions
27	Shares on issue	1,100,000,000
28	Oil price	$75.00
29	Dorado production costs	$20.00
30	1 AUD = $1.4065 USD	$1.41

Fundamental Value, page-107

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