There are more warning signs of a market downturn coming out of Wall Street. Goldman and Morgan Stanley both have indicators supposedly flashing warning signs. I am doubtful that these signals will pan out. The main reason this current economic and market cycle has smashed all records is because there has been a record amount of fiscal support and not likely to subside anytime soon. When it does then you can start taking those bear market signals more seriously, but for now the fiscal flows are just too strong.
Here are the numbers.
Fiscal flows
Total spending for the fiscal year through Sep 6, $4.47T, up $166.4 bln over last year and growing at 3.86% y-o-y. This is the largest positive y-o-y spending gap so far this fiscal year.
