Ann: Variation of Takeover Bid, page-86

DYOR:

I have extracted information from a number of sources to merge into on post here, sorry for the long winded post.

Why AGO should be valued at 8-10cps:
• HPPL want 100% of AGO shares, but will struggle to get to 89% in their best outcome.
• HPPL are not spending $390m/$415m to lose it all.
• HPPL has increased offer (conditional) once.
• HPPL has acquired about 76% of the shares.
• FMG has an 11% blocking stake, and Elizabeth Gaines has stated that “Fortescue currently holds an 11.3 per cent shareholding in Atlas Iron and looks forward to participating in the future of the company”.
• Two cornerstone investors.
• Yankee debtholders have sold out (more or less).
• New board of directors (including management team from HPPL/FMG) coming soon.
• HPPL is an experienced and accomplished team.
• Cost reductions opportunities by using third party rail in lieu of trucking ore to port.
• Cost reductions opportunities by optimising IO mix using third party ore.
• Renegotiating/restructuring Term Loan B Facility opportunities.
• Port access for up to 15Mtpa.
• Potential port access for up to 31.5Mtpa, with HPPL having to negotiating with WA government.
• NWI South West Creek
“Atlas is a founding member of North West Infrastructure (NWI). In 2011, NWI completed a detailed engineering and design costing study on the development of a stockyard and two berth facility in South West Creek within the Port Hedland inner harbour. The Minister for Transport, Planning and Infrastructure has advised that the Pilbara Ports Authority will assess any application by NWI to develop these berths on its merits and in accordance with the Pilbara Port Authority’s standard port development processes and that these berths are set aside for junior miners.”
• AGO has about $500m DTA.
• JV opportunities on iron ore, lithium, gold, copper prospects held by AGO.
• Expanding DSO for lithium and manganese opportunities.
• Further exploration opportunities on Pancho lithium prospects.
• IO prices are now much higher and AUD is much lower than when MIN/HPPL submitted takeover bids (IO prices overall higher in AUD terms):
  o MIN offer: IOP about 65USD & USD/AUD=0.772 (84.20AUD)
  o HPPL offer: IOP about 67USD & USD/AUD=0.745 (89.90AUD)
  o Now: IOP about 69USD & USD/AUD=0.715 (96.50AUD)
  o Now: IOP is about 15% than when MIN made bid
• AGO assets:
  o Mt Webber Mine.
  o Corunna Downs, Miralga Creek, McPhee Creek, Ridley Magnetite & Davidson Creek Hub projects.
  o Lithium/Manganese DSO.
  o Altura (lithium) royalties.
  o Cisco (lithium) JV drilling.
  o Pancho lithium prospects.
  o Copper prospects at Newman and Miralga Creek.
  o Gold prospects at Corunna Downs, Miralga Creek and McPhee Creek.
• If MIN thought that they would get AGO assets working differently (profitably) as they made an official bid for AGO, then so does HPPL.
• MIN is leading the billionaires pack with recent asset acquisitions, infrastructure and JVs.
• HPPL also investing in:
  o Coal: Riversdale Resources
  o Agriculture: Sirius

Need to see AR2018 when it comes out in 1-2 weeks regarding top twenty holders and distribution, will be interesting!!!

My comments are not advice and I don’t have a crystal ball to tell me about the future, may be need to ask Marty Mcfly (character from Back to the Future).
I am only speculating, time will tell as is always the case.

All comments are at this point in time based on publicly available information including ASX announcements, Target’s/Bidder’s Statements, Annual Reports, media outlets, etc.