Ann: Cormorant-1 Exploration Well in PEL 37 Offsh Namibia Result, page-91

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zacma

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25/09/18

06:46

Post #: 35813705
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Originally posted by squidgy ↑

As a working petroleum geophysicist/geologist who has drilled hundreds of wildcats, I would like to put some perspective on drilling a dry hole in a wildcat. I will try and talk in language all can get some value from.
First of all, with all the science and all the money in the world, you have to make an educated guess on factors you do not control or cannot accurately measure. You are judged against a specific result - was there commercial oil in the hole that you drilled? Close only counts in horseshoes, grenades and atom bombs. Some factors (even with a look alike field next door which PCL did not have the luxury of) are high risk or at least have large error bars. In complex questions, comes uncertain answers.
Secondly, every wildcat drill reduces the risk through gained knowledge of the next drill (or abandoning the area if the knowledge gained is damning). Very few breakthroughs in new basins come from initial wells. As a shareholder, the post mortem and reactions of neighbors will be instructive.
Thirdly and most importantly, the geos involved need thick skins because a dry hole is a kick in the guts to a project that sometimes took decades to get drilled. You put all your ability into finding something missed by others - think of an Easter Egg hunt that started 100 years ago and you still strive to find that one more giant egg.
I had nothing to do with this well but my heart goes out to the lads (unisex intended - discloser to Justin Trudeau) and hope they make a hit on the next one.

Finally, there are many reasons for a dry hole, some are fixable, some are not, and too many have you scratching your head. Time will tell and I wish all punters better luck in the future.

To share a personal story, I have returned to an area I really favoured 4 times and succeeded in adding 4 dry holes to the area. I have done the same in an other area, each time being successful while other operates failed and let me back onto their land. Scientifically I can't tell the difference (at least to my skill level) between the two areas although time has taught me never to return to Deadhorse Creek (maybe the name should have given it away).

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From a working petroleum geophysicist/geologist's perspective with your experience, is it at all possible to keep the "as you go results" a secret until TD? This is almost a bigger issue for the Investors than the difficulty of finding oil.
Difficult to see PCL surviving at this point. Hopefully someone will buy the company to obtain the leases.

PCL Price at posting: 0.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Cormorant-1 Exploration Well in PEL 37 Offsh Namibia Result, page-91

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Ann: Cormorant-1 Exploration Well in PEL 37 Offsh Namibia Result, page-91

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