resource sector set to fall !!!

  1. 1,006 Posts.
    Just some numbers

    In the last 12 months
    AUD/USD has gone from 0.5665 to 0.7680 a rise of 35%
    Oil in USD
    Gone from USD 25 to USD 35 per br
    Gold in USD
    Gone from USD 355 to USD 407

    Converting to AUD
    OIL gone from AUD 44.13 to AUD 45.57 up 3.2%
    Gold gone from AUD 626.6 down to AUD 529.94 down 15% ... yep down 15%

    Looking at the index
    S+P ASX 200 went from 3083.6 to 3288.8 up 6.6 %
    over 12 months

    S+P ASX 300 resource index
    Went from 1560 to 1884 up 20.7 %
    over the 12 months

    this is a broad index to give a fuller picture of the market ...

    S+P ASX Energy Index
    went from 4100 to 5200 up 21.9%
    for the 12 months

    So you say big deal ... resource market has way out performed the overall index ... yes maybe you are right if the actual commodities have gone up !!! Some have I am sure ... but just to give some of you mining nuts something to chew on in January 2005.

    I left the best to last .... for all the HC penny dreadful mining stocks that have been ramped up on bulldust ...

    ASX Small Resource Index
    had gone from 1328 to 1844 up 38.8 %
    That is in the last 6 months !!!!
    All the other indexes are for 12 months

    So the next time you think of buying a penny dreadful
    remember the bigger picture !!!!!

    I am sure to have the mining girls all abusing me about this post .... it is not my fault ... stocks will not keep
    on rising if the unerlying product they produce is falling in real terms. They cannot go on forever outperforming the unerlying assets they have.

    This is not to say all mining stocks are overpriced and some ... very few ... but some have very exciting prospects ... as for the penny dreadfuls ... if they are substantially higher ... now might be a good time to sell. Take the profit and run !!!!

 
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