Appears to have come in around market expectations. By my calculations gross figures have it at around 28 million bls - about 11.3 mill bls to CVN on 2P. This from Hartleys report in Dec.
Reserves
Na Sanun Reserves
Reserves numbers will be calculated as at end of December 2007 and released in Q1/Q2 2008. We anticipate
that those for Na Sanun East will be in the order of 21mmbbls gross.
The expected reserves number will be a constrained estimate, as field appraisal has not been completed as:
• The eastern boundary of the field has not been delineated.
• The oil water contact has not been intersected.
• The northern compartment has not been appraised enough to add certain reserves.
• Reserves are calculated under the Society of Petroleum Engineers (“SPE”) definition, which is more
conservative than the method used by the majority of small Australian companies.
Reserves Value
The 21mmbbls gross reserves expected equates to 10mmbbls net to Carnarvon and at $21 NPV/boe gives a
conservative valuation of 36cps.
With the addition of Wichian Buri reserves of 2.8mmbbls @ $19 NPV/boe giving a valuation of 9cps, the share
price is underpinned at 45c. We believe that resource estimates (gross) are more likely in the range 40mmbbls
(80% probability) to 100mmbbls (10% probability) – putting the value in the range $0.49 to $1.32 for Na Sanun
East alone.
3P reserves appear to be around 115 mill bls - 46 mil bls to CVN. Great result with so much more to come. Hopefully CVN have some commentary with their release.
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