demand for ropren

From RMResearch:

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Demand for Ropren®
It is very difficult sitting in Australia to convey the anticipation with which Ropren®
is awaited in Russia. The fact is that, like a number of other countries (including
Australia), Russia has an enormous problem with chronic liver disease. At the
same time, existing treatments are expensive, often ineffective and sometimes
have significant side effects.
World Health Organisation (WHO) data indicates the increasing global incidence
of chronic liver disease. Many etiological (and ecological) factors contribute to the
development of liver disease, including viral pathogens, toxins from pollution,
hormonal and metabolic disorders, poor diet, and alcohol and drug abuse.
Alcohol and pharmaceutical consumption are major problems.
The ability of Ropren® to deal so effectively with chronic liver disease will have
hugely positive social impact in Russia. There are more than 10 million people
with chronic liver disease in Russia according to official data, with up to 1 million
new cases each year and 100,000 deaths.
It is expected that demand for Ropren® for use in treating liver disease alone will
reach 320,000 courses in 2010, and rise to 1.2 million courses per year by 2012.
The forecast demand was built up using a two stage S-curve analysis assuming a
conservative 12.5% saturation achieved over a period of 4 years. Stage I will be
for supply to St Petersburg and Moscow. Stage II broadens the market to the
whole of Russia. It has been assumed that Ropren will take 27 months to reach
this level of penetration in Moscow and St Petersburg starting at the beginning of
next year, and 48 months to achieve it in the remainder of Russia starting from the beginning of 2010.