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Housing Crash 2019??, page-182

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gapup

3,437 Posts.

41

02/10/18

12:48

Post #: 35964709
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Originally posted by danhoff ↑

well I have bought in a little; a few reasons

1) the house price increases (Syd and Mel) were 12-13% a year for a couple years up to 18 months ago; so a 15-20% dive will just get the prices back to where they were a couple of years ago; so loan holders really just get back to square one... but no huge individual losses - bankruptcies

2) I like WBC is trying to get rid of the investor, high leveraged loans; a preemptive move

3) I like WBC ear marked the $235 mill of 'oops, we will need to pay back to consumers'

4) I think a slow, slow multi year crash (to 20%) is actually good

5) I think (my opinion) the most likely worst case is priced in; no one can price in a huge crash

6) govt will not let banks crash; if property becomes a problem, they just drop interest rates; I believe the next rate move will be DOWN; this will allow the 'walking dead' scenario I envisage; in a low rate scenario, a bank with a price that does not grow for 3 or 5 years, but pays the franked dividend will be a good place to park some of your money

7) the Royal Commission report did show the govt does not want to spank the banks too badly

Expand

you wont be able to stop it. The run up was parabolic the run down will be
ugly.

WBC Price at posting: $27.21 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Last $27.66		Change 0.135(0.49%)		Mkt cap ! $96.88B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$27.85	$27.97	$27.65	$63.54M	2.280M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
19	2860	$27.65

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$27.66	4016	10

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	4617	27.660
8	5126	27.650
10	4599	27.640
7	5318	27.630
4	3507	27.620

Price($)	Vol.	No.
27.680	7291	16
27.690	6219	12
27.700	20511	11
27.710	9087	15
27.720	40064	11

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