Originally posted by skinsy11
Bread, I seem to recall seeing some information published on these threads or Avita site as to the number of people treated in hospitals in the US for 2nd & 3rd burns. The number of 50,000 comes to mind but I could be wrong. 50,000 kits / treatments USD5,000 =
This could be a significant overstatement particularly in the shorter term next couple of years.......
I am unable to trawl back through the AVH info for the next few days but f anyone is able to go back over HC posts and company announcements etc that might assist in providing some potential for the next 12 months.
A bit of reality needs to come into the discussions
The 486000 number was people who attended a hospital with some burn injury. Many will have stuff all burn but it will be noted to get code use and also in support of other injuries. Please go find the stat and look at it's make up
Then the 50,000 number . It is a extrapolation of approx 30-40k people treated in hospital and burn center settings. Now think about what % of that is pediatric- under 18yo? at least 30%. Those will be poorly covered under compassionate use which for pediatric I hope to see expanded gradually until trials are done , completed.
Many admissions are for other skin issues compound medical issues better suited to specialist care supported in burns units. So a 66% are directly related to burns..
Burn centers and hospitals , surgeons are not a charity but a business so you then need to work out how many can spend USD10,000 on a kit for 10% of body and then $ on the ancillary services, hospital costs etc. Here is a hint. Look up the USA codes and work out the % burn and a cm2 basis for a average size person and multiply it by code $ value and then do codes for surgeons hospital bed in intensive care burns setting etc.
Look at the study that showed the cost saving and it's assumptions and it's best case targets to work out which patients are likely to be given the opportunity to use recell.
IMO the company putting out the bait number of 486000 is poor form as they know they are not in contention for every burn etc etc. It is the if only could sell a rolls Royce to everyone in india scenario- yeah that'll happen.
Look at the below stats.
So 73% happen at home. Think what circumstances insurance covers that ( 10% USA uninsured for a start) ? Think what age group gets burnt at home ? Think about how many can justify a $10000 kit price.
"Hospitalizations Related to Burn Injury: 40,000, including 30,000 at hospital burn centersOver 60% of the estimated U.S. acute hospitalizations related to burn injury were admitted to 128 burn centers. Such centers now average over 200 annual admissions for burn injury and skin disorders requiring similar treatment. The other 4,500 U.S. acute care hospitals average less than 3 burn admissions per year.Sources: National Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS: 2010 data); National Hospital Discharge Survey (2010 data); recent 100% hospitalization data from several states.
Selected Statistics: 2005-2014 Burn Admissions to Burn Centers(ABA National Burn Repository 2015)
Survival Rate: 96.8%
Gender: 68% Male, 32% Female
Ethnicity: 59% Caucasian, 20% African-American, 14% Hispanic, 7% Other
Admission Cause: 43% Fire/Flame, 34% Scald, 9% Contact, 4% Electrical, 3% Chemical, 7% Other
Place of Occurrence: 73% Home, 8% Occupational, 5% Street/Highway, 5% Recreational/Sport, 9% Other"
If AVH management want shareholders to have a idea of what current market size they are formally approved for is they can tell you rather than put out crazy number of 486000. It doesn't IMO reflect well on them using that number.
some older data and % should be a OK estimate
https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb25.pdf
(20min delay)