This is the perplexing part about the 'oversupply' claim.
So currently, here are the global and Chinese sales. Note that the United States (not shown separately) just had its record sales month (September) on record of 44K units (compared to 21K last Sept..or 110% growth).
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So globally, sales are sitting at 64% growth over last year (58%, 41%, 72% years before).
Yet the major car producers, don't even have their major line ups available to the public yet! I'm not yet seeing EV TV commercials (Australia is slow I admit). All that is still coming. So, I really don't see this slowing down from 64% growth. If anything, things will accelerate up the S curve which mathematically has an increasing gradient (sales growth) up to 50% penetration.
My prediction is a massive underestimation of demand. This is historically what has been happening over and over with lithium demand. Macquarie just at the start of the year predicted a growth rate of 35% for EVs this year. Its almost double that. So wrong on such a short time scale. UBS initially predicted 9% EV penetration by 2025, then revised up to 14% last year and then at the start of this year, revised up to 16.5%. There is a pattern here of these 'research' firms constantly playing catch up.
Expecting this year to end with around 65% growth over last year and the 2 million EV/y mark crossed.
A simple model with 50% growth will result in around 30% EV penetration by 2025, which is around double most 'positive' forecasts. LCE requirement near 1000kt/y using my 35kwh average per car. Note that my 2018 figure of 1.83 mil sales is likely going to be an underestimate already!
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(20min delay)