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Davy Boy

16,595 Posts.

3977

16/10/18

09:29

Post #: 36134985
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Originally posted by jctl ↑

It seems my numbers have been challenged, so I will lay them out for clarity. People can do their own calculation.

Cairn's August 2016 NPV numbers are as follows

Then using the $US70 per barrel NPV of $US12.50 @ FID, and using FID Senegal 2019 (1 years time) and 2027 (9 years time for Gambia), Senegal FAR 13.7% intertest and in Gambia FAR 36.1% interest, and a discount factor of 10%.

ie Line 1 (12.5/1.1)*(561,000,000*0.137/.71)/5,462,000,000 = $0.23

Line 2 [12.5/(1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1)]*[800,000,000*4*0.137*0.66/.71]/5,462,000,000 = $0.40

Total = $0.62.

At $US80 per barrel a total of $0.82. ie between $0.70 and $0.80 as I said in post above.

Note the market is only paying $0.11 for Senegals $0.23 value.

Obviously a big player will not pay $0.80, hence why I said 40 cents with a successful Gambia drill result at end November.

As Mr Hustler says Gambia could be more important than Senegal.

Hopefully Trumpie doesn't spoil it.

IMO and DYOR.

Expand

Jctl just a question why 9 years for The Gambia?
FID in Senegal will be around 5yrs from discovery? Also why 36.1% Gambia. Gambia back in for 15% at did I believe

Last edited by Davy Boy: 16/10/18

FAR Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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