I believe FY18 Guidance will be met, page-3

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Jo007

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17/10/18

18:31

Post #: 36161713
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Originally posted by stockrock ↑

Hi all

We are going to get a better idea of this in a couple of weeks with the Sep18 Qtr Appendix 4C, however it doesn't hurt to do a little forecasting to see how much Fluence need to win in new contracts in the next couple of months to meet guidance of US$105-$115m for this financial year.

As a starting point, as of June 2018 we had YTD revenue of US$32.8m and backlog of US$84m of which US$49.2m will be converted to revenue in FY18. So contracted revenue forecasted for FY18 at the half year was US$32.8m + US49.2m = US$82.0m.

So US$23m of new contracts are required to be converted into revenue from 1 July 2018 - 31 Dec 2018 to meet the lower end of the US$105m.

Here is what has happened since 30 June 2018, and my projections of how much revenue it will generate in the second half of 2018.

I am assuming US$0.4m per CMABR unit.

4/7/18 US$1.6m --> Four Aspiral units in China for Baiceng
6/7/18 US$0.4m--> One pilot unit in China for iTest
16/7/18 US$1.5m --> Three Nirobox units - BOOT, Bahamas (will be able to recognise upfront revenue on capex)
7/8/18 US$0.4m --> Aspiral WaterFleet US sale, pilot unit
9/8/18 US$1.5m --> Argentina water treatment plant, Jun19 commissioning (US$3.5m total contract value)
16/8/18 US$0.8m --> Two Aspiral units, Phillipines
1/10/18 US$7.2m --> San Quintin (US$48m capex over 20 months)
12/10/18 US$3.75m --> Aspiral, iTest China (US$45m over 3 years)
15/10/18 US$0.4m --> Aspiral, MABR module sales in US

So that is an estimated US$17.6m of revenue to be recognised based on contract wins since 30 June 2018.

US$82.0m + US$17.6m will mean they should have at least US$99.6m revenue in the bag, or require a further US$5.4m in of new or unannounced revenues to meet the lower end of guidance.

I'm quite confident there is at least US$5.4m of unannounced contract wins, or contract wins to come this quarter!

I have also been a little conservative assuming an even spread of revenue over these larger projects, as revenue is usually front-loaded due to upfront capex recognition ...

Goodluck and looking forward to the 4C!

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And if we can match the $17.6M from Sept Qtr THIS Qtr, we'll be OVER guidance!!!
What? Too optimistic? Pfft. Me thinks not. Great post, Stockrock. Thank you.

Last edited by Jo007: 17/10/18

FLC Price at posting: 44.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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