As a consistent supporter of this company's business case (I've broken all my Finance 101 rules with diversification to this share!), we're clearly in the moment of truth months. I see only two future states, with this being a >30c or <8c share in the coming February based on Financing and Equity raise concern outcomes. My long term view of 50c to $1 is still my investment hypothesis, and I obviously view this as a >30c view in February on the basis that we do receive funding.
I agree the Patent things is a bit strange, and it realistically does look like a fail for the company. But seemingly a messaging fail than a long term valuation one. My valuation view has never hinged on us being the only producer like this, simply we're first to market with our approach. My biggest concern was one posters sharing of information that another company had proposed a way to create HPA more cost effectively. I couldn't judge how accurate that was as they were only initial outputs, so I've currently ignored that in my view. Nevertheless, that is a bigger risk than someone copying our approach, which inherently requires the investment and build time to then influence price dynamics for us (there's the market for additional suppliers if Future market projections are even close to accurate). A copy cat will face the same marginal cost pressures we would and won't drive prices down to a level that is unprofitable for our company, new technology might.
Anyhow, main takeout for me from this slide deck is the seemingly new slide included, which highlights the considerable upside from the conservative case in the DFS valuation. This was already known, so is it's reiteration a pump & dump strategy, or simply to reiterate the upside to this share. I sit in camp B, but in recent days we've certainly seen more commentary from camp A.
Anyways, with a significant holding I look forward to the evidence based views that disregard this project. If someone can highlight why we wouldn't get finance that'd certainly change my outlook! In the absence of this, I sit on the buy side waiting for this to run.
(20min delay)