My take on the above comments....I totally agree with GSAD1000's take on what is happening with regard to EV's motives for takeover....though I disagree with the numbers....as we are getting close to the finish line ...I tought I'd share my numbers with the group...my numbers are above....accounting for full dilution 2nd milestone shares
EV coverage using Spookfisk systems (currently EV fly 750k sqm with their systems) % revenue from new areas, customers or products Total Coverage eligible for revenue share USD/sq mile USD rev share / sq m Total Revenue Share USD Flying Royalties USD/ sqm Total USD from Eagleview Total AUD from Eagleview Aust Operations AUD Expenses Upside China / Eurpoe EBITDA multiple with takeover premium mkt cap shares Share Price Cents 1 $ 5.00 6.7% 2 fy19 900,000 2% 18,000 225 18 315,000 4,500,000 4,815,000 6,506,757 4,000,000 - 14,000,000 ? - 3,493,243 15 - 52,398,649 1,703,000,000 - 3.08 3 fy20 1,250,000 5% 62,500 225 18 1,093,750 6,250,000 7,343,750 9,923,986 8,000,000 - 14,000,000 ? 3,923,986 15 58,859,797 1,703,000,000 0.03 4 fy21 1,250,000 10% 125,000 225 18 2,187,500 6,250,000 8,437,500 11,402,027 15,000,000 - 14,000,000 ? 12,402,027 15 186,030,405 1,703,000,000 0.11 I don't see any commercial need for EV to capture all of the US...even over the 7 year period. They spend money on capture when customers are willing to buy the data ...not for fun or just to have complete coverage...so I would completely disregard the $49M figure.
My understanding is the total annual coverage of EV is was 750,000 around the time of the agreement and is still under 1M now......and although they will look to increase this over the next few years to maybe 1.5M or even 2M ...this does not tie in with your assumed 9M sq Miles (750,000 x 12)...so I'd say best case would be $10M per year after a couple of years.
The 5% of EV sales has a major caveat which is it ONLY applies to new,customers, new areas captured or new products to existing customers (outside core 750,000 already covered when the agreement was signed)....so this has a lot of uncertainty around it ...and SFI don't just get a cut of their core business going forward just because it is captured using SFI technology....in summary I have SFI earning initially around $4.8M USD....increasing to $8.4M over a few years.... giving a share price of $0.11 per share in FY21. As funding to ramp up the Aust operations....and success of the sales team and management are big unknowns....that is why I've concluded best accept offer now. Good luck to all holders ....I suspect it could have been a different ride...but my view is management negotiated poor deals with EV in the first place. Cheers